2011 U.S. Open - Early Odds and Sharp Opinion

June, for a while there I wasn't sure we were going to make it this far. From snow here in May to doomsday predictions, June seemed like the longest of long shots. Regardless, here we are and the 2011 version of the US Open at Congressional Country Club in Bethesda, MD will apparently occur. The venerable British betting house Ladbrokes has an early line. The odds quoted here were as of this morning. I curiously noted however that the US Open board is temporarily down on Ladbrokes site. Perhaps due to the recent withdrawal of said Tiger Woods, who evidently needs more time in the shop before he re-emerges on a golf course. No mind though, we have enough early info to form some strident opinions.   

As of this morning Woods was traded at 14:1. Odds are 1,000:1 that he undergoes a miracle cure and persuades the USGA to re-enter him.    

Phil Mickelson at 12:1 seems to me to be a bit of a sucker bet given his recent play and the need to locate Congressional's stingy fairways from the tee box.

Luke Donald shares lowest odds with Phil at 12:1. Sounds good to me. Donald can dissect a course and that may be the required procedure here.     

Donald's fellow Brit Lee Westwood is listed at 14:1. His putter coupled with Open bathtub greens may spell less than 1st.  

Rory McIlroy's offered at 16:1. His play certainly warrants it and there's only one way to tell if his Masters' scab has healed. Would be interesting to see the lad in the mix on Sunday. 

Dustin Johnson and Martin Kaymer at 25:1.  Wasn't it not that long ago that Kaymer was the World #1? Did it not suit him? Johnson can win any time he tees it up. Hopefully Joe LaCava can show him how to put the stupid decision pills back in the bottle.

It's not often you see the defending champ at 33:1, but that's where Graeme McDowell rests. A statement on the recent condition of his game methinks. Hope he does well. He seems like a genuinely good dude.

Matt Kuchar and Steve Stricker 25:1 Nick Watney 33:1. These beg to be opportunities to make money. Kuchar's an automatic top ten everywhere. Stricker's a pin-seeking, putt-making machine and Watney's tasted victory with a swing that's the sweetest this side of Elkington. Bet 'em all hard.

David Toms at 40:1 may be a wish, but WTH? 

See above for Geoff Ogilvy. Former champ at 40:1.

Feeling risky? Here's a trio at 50:1 that could fatten your wallet. Bubba Watson, Jim Furyk, and Sergio Garcia. Oh, BTW, Furyk's won one of these.   

Where does the time go? picks....  Former champs Retief Goosen, 66:1 and Ernie Els, 80:1.   

Extreme value picks.....  Stewart Cink and Jeff Overton at 125:1. Davis Love III and two time winner this year, Mark Wilson, at 200:1.

We'll update as the Open approaches and post Average Golfer's final expert picks on June 13. 








Swing hard, look up,







 

Inbee Park Wins 2008 U.S. Women's Open - Leaves Field in the Dust.

19 year old Inbee Park, who began golfing two days after watching Se Ri Pak win the 1998 U.S. Women's Open, got one of her own ten years later. Her cool, smooth, -2, 71 was more than enough to fend off what started the day as a tightly bunched field. Helen Alfredsson finished in solo second, four strokes back. It was a great tournament for her other than the lack of a dependable putter. In a three way tie for 3rd were American Stacy Lewis, 75 today, -4 overall. She was tied with In-Kyung Kim and sweet swinging Angela Park. Nicole Castrale with an excellent -2 today, one of the few under par rounds other than Inbee's, snuck into a tie with Paula Creamer, Mi Hyun Kim, and Giulia Sergas.

Today's final pairing, Creamer and Lewis each got off to inauspicious starts. Both double bogeyed the 2nd hole. Creamer doubled the 9th. They finished the front nine in 41, and 40 respectively. Inbee birdied her 1st two holes and made the turn in 35. Thus, the field moved backward and the leader moved forward. The back nine was essentially an Inbee coronation.

Park became the youngest winner in the history of the U.S. Women's Open. She proved again that golf is a world sport, no longer dominated by the US and Europe. The field is wide open and I sense we'll be seeing more newly minted stars in women's golf. Right now they're at the colleges, golf academies, and high schools all over the world. Exciting times!

Average Golfer Open observations.....

1. Putting still wins golf tournaments. Anywhere, anytime.

2. Annika Sorenstam's 18th hole eagle, a 199 yard six iron, was karma and a fitting end to her Open career. Coolest shot of the tourney. No 2nd place.

3. Watch out for Maria Jose Uribe. The Colombian was low amateur and under par as well, finishing at -2.

4. Michelle Wie has a looong way to go, but still is a great ball striker. She's the closest thing to a male pro out there in terms of how she hits the ball.

5. Pressure identifies champions. It was a wide open tournament when they teed off this morning. Inbee Park handled the pressure of a major championship better than the rest, hence she won.

6. Don't worry too much about Lorena. She's had a ton of personal burdens in the last few weeks and it must have been impossible to focus. She's still the world #1, by a long shot.

7. Other than an bit of an anti-climactic back nine, anyone that didn't enjoy this event isn't a real golf fan.

8. Stay tuned. The Annika farewell tour continues and the Women's British Open isn't far away.

Til' next,

Tight at the Top at '08 U.S. Women's Open.

It's gettin' a little cozy atop the leader board at the 2008 U.S. Women's Open. Angela Park's superb six under round early today gave her the lead. Nothing like five birdies and an eagle to jump start your tournament. The pack at -5 includes Minea Blomqvist, Inbee Park, and three players that didn't complete their rounds as of this writing. Defender Cristie Kerr, Helen Alfredsson, and Candie Kung. It sure is nice to see Alfredsson on the board in a meaningful tournament. Paula Creamer, -1 today, was at -4 total, tied with Jeong Jang. Five more players were tied at -3 and six more were linked at -2, some done for the day, some not. Storms rolled in during the afternoon session pushing play backwards for about 2 1/2 hours. Players like Park, in the morning rounds, had more benign conditions to deal with.

Some notables.......First round co-leader Pat Hurst shot 78 to drop her to -1 total. Annika's also at -1 after a three under 70 today. Lorena Ochoa's at +1 total and still had two holes to finish. Morgan Pressel and Suzann Peterssen were at +2. Karrie Webb was +5. Thirteen year old Alexis Thompson is at +6 after a 77 today. Julie Inkster, after a respectable 74 on day #1, plummeted with an 81 today to wipe out her chances. And lastly, Michelle Wie was +1 after 14 holes today, leaving her at +9 overall. It looks like she's salvaging a decent round after yesterday's debacle. Good for her. Builds character to continue to fight through adversity.

They say Saturday's moving day in a golf tournament. We should see a ton of moving tomorrow with so many players so evenly positioned. There's really no clue as to how this will play out. And that folks, is the fun of it!

Til' next,

*Average Golfer observation. It would be nice if the networks had allotted more air time for arguably the biggest women's golf event of the year. Granted they couldn't forecast a delay in play, but 6 and 7 PM, EST sign- offs doesn't leave room for much golf with premiere players in both early and later rounds. Besides, Jeopardy and Wheel of Fortune are on other channels. I'd like to see the weekend coverage expand an hour as well.

Woods Gambles His Future For Open Trophy. Worth It?

Do you think Tim Finchem is saying quietly to himself, "He played with what?". Yup, the franchise played 91 holes at full speed and walked 21 miles with a torn anterior cruciate ligament and a double stress fracture of the tibia. Is that considered brave? Nope, it means he has a high tolerance for pain. With that threshold, might as well finish the year. Why stop now? Have the surgery after the Fedex Cup.

There's no question Mr. Woods ignored the good advice of some of the top doctors in their field. I'll bet that his doctors are so good they have to treat themselves. There's none better. If Woods was an NFL quarterback the diagnosis would have shut him down for the year. Because the team would care for his well being? No, to protect the franchise. Because he has another 10 to 12 years or more to rack up major trophies. If Woods was a superstar in a team sport he'd have been shelved and operated on last summer when he tore the ACL. And no, they wouldn't have asked his opinion. Which begs the question, why didn't he have the ACL fixed right after last years Fedex Cup? He might have rehabbed and made the US Open. Golf's an individual sport and he owes us no answers. He can play or not play whenever he chooses. Still, the timing of all this fails to make sense.

It can't be about money. Even if Tiger pulled a Daly and started getting his mail at a Vegas casino, money wouldn't be an issue. No, its about ego. A large ego is somewhat necessary to achieve unknown heights in a solitary sport. Big ego convinces you that you can defy the laws of physics and biology by willing them away. Don't confuse self confidence with ego though. Too much ego is what allows us to make short term decisions that are in our interests alone. My guess is that Woods wanted to play in this year's Masters and that mind set carried over to the US Open in a ridiculous manner. Watching all of this unfold is like when I was a kid and watched Evel Knievel jump 20 school buses or some other death defying stunt. Were they great achievements? Well, yes, they were Herculean. Was it a dumb thing to do? Well, of course. Tiger just jumped 20 school buses. Fun to watch. Really dumb thing to do.

Can't you just see Tim Finchem at the operating room door saying, "Are you sure you went to the Duke University Medical School?"

Til' next,

Tiger Nips Rocco in 19 Hole Marathon Playoff at '08 U.S. Open

91 holes, David vs Goliath, and a single stroke separated them after 91 holes. They were deadlocked after the 18 hole playoff, so it took a 19th playoff hole to decide what has to have been one of the most compelling major tournaments in quite some time. Tiger Woods parred the 7th hole, the 1st sudden death hole, to claim his 14th major championship and 3rd U.S. Open. A more than game Rocco Mediate forced him to use every last ounce of his formidable skill to pull it off. Woods was three strokes up through ten holes of the playoff when Mediate went on a three hole birdie tear of his own. He was one up getting to the 18th hole. Woods' birdie and Mediate's par forced sudden death. It was a little unfortunate that the sudden death playoff began on the 7th hole. It's a longish dogleg right par 4 that doesn't necessarily set up well for Rocco's natural draw. Sure enough, his tee ball was in a fairway bunker left. Woods hit the fairway and had an easy approach shot. Two putts later, after a little more Rocco trouble, Woods had a par and the trophy.

24,000+ fans showed up for the playoff. Woods' knee didn't appear to be much of a factor in today's round. He did mention in the post round interview though that he'd be taking some extended time off. Rocco gained a legion of fans for the quality of his play and his wonderful personality and attitude. Finally healthy after quite some time, he hung with and pressured the world's best over five days. Not many people can say that. I'm a Rocco fan now. How could you not be?

Til' next,

Still Open for Business - Woods/Mediate Playoff for '08 U.S. Open Title

At high noon tomorrow, Eastern Standard time, the unlikeliest of duos will play 18 holes of golf for the 2008 U.S. Open championship. Rocco Mediate, 156th in the world rankings will tee it up mano y mano against Tiger Woods, world #1. Rocco's 71 made up the two stroke deficit he started the day with. Wood's 73, with a need birdie on the 18th, left him alone tied with Mediate.

Rocco's steady play, hitting fairways and greens, elevated him to the high echelon of golf for the last four days. Wood's erratic play, especially off the tee, has been countered with spectacular short game and white hot putter when he needs it. With Rocco in the clubhouse with a one stroke lead, Woods and Lee Westwood were tied for 2nd, a single stroke back, both needing birdie on the easiest hole on the golf course. Both hit their drive into fairway bunkers. Both laid up, Woods in the 1st cut of rough, Westwood in the fairway. Both hit the green with their 3rd shots. Westwood missed a downhill slider to get into a playoff, Woods drained his to play tomorrow.

A study in contrast awaits. We all know Woods. We'll all think Rocco's part of the family when this is settled. Superstar vs 45 year old tour grinder. Long hitter vs short hitter. Mr. Serious vs Mr. Affable. The knee that's been talked about so much didn't seem to be as much of a factor other than the first two holes when Woods started double bogey, bogey. Rocco seems in fine shape having evidently licked the chronic back problems that have dogged him for a good share of his career.

Other than Westwood, no one really challenged Woods or Mediate all day long. Some got within three or four shots of the leaders and then hit a wall that prevented them from contending. Tomorrow's round begins at 12:00 PM EST on ESPN, then switches to NBC at 2:00 PM. This has been one of the best U.S. Opens ever. Great tough, but fair golf course. Compelling action and lead changes. Couldn't ask for anything more. May the best man win.

Til, next,

Average Golfer observation..........Rocco Mediate has a career playoff record of 2-0.

2008 U.S. Open - Who Can Win?

Sounds like a dumb question. Perhaps it is. Regardless, they still play all 72 holes. Who would have picked Angel Cabrera last year? I didn't, and if you say you did, and you're not from Argentina, you're lying. Angel's mother didn't pick him. Let's search for an Angel this year or wimp out and take a favorite. As is the tradition in Average Golfer we'll post the Ladbrokes odds for the top twenty players and throw in a long shot or two. Here we go........

Tiger Woods, 3/1 ........ Probably would have been 8/5 without the knee injury. I think he's going to have trouble with full shots out of US Open rough due to that knee. He'll be in some rough. His driving accuracy is only 59%. OK on the regular tour, trouble here. He won't win.

Phil Mickelson, 8/1 ........ Hasn't won a major since the disaster at Winged Foot. Wants this badly. Has the length and strength for the course. Played high school matches at Torrey Pines. Can win. Probably the safest bet on the board.

Sergio Garcia, 20/1 ........ Has the game for the course. Long and straight. 294 yds. and 65% of fairways. Magical around the greens. Won The Players to build confidence in big events. Has a great chance to win this if his head stays glued on.

Padraig Harrington, 25/1 ........ Playing well, but not major championship well. Still, a good enough player to always be a threat. Handles pressure well, i.e. last year's Open Championship. Could win, but doubtful.

Geoff Ogilvy, 33/1 ........ Previous winner. Good driver. Hits a lot of greens. Could win. Seems to play up to the importance of the tournament.

Jim Furyk, 33/1 ........ Another previous winner. 72% fairways hit which really helps here. Sneaky long off the tee when needed. As his putter goes, so go his chances. I like him. Average Golfer's pick to win.

Luke Donald, 33/1 ........ Can't win here. The Brits don't hold up to pressure on American soil for some reason, unless it's the Ryder Cup. Course is too long and nasty for Luke.

Vijay Singh, 33/1 ........ Hard to figure Vijay this year. Good finishes, good stats, no wins. Made some swing changes, although it looks the same to me. Strong player, can win.

Adam Scott, 40/1 ........ Broken pinky made him tumble down the odds board. Tough to grip a club with a broken finger, to say nothing of a 100+ mph hack out of 4 inch rough. Not this year for Adam.

Ernie Els, 40/1 ........ What's to say? Ernie's a mess until he shows me otherwise. Can't win. I love Ernie and will point out that he's a two time winner. Seems like a million years ago.

Justin Rose, 40/1 ........ See Luke Donald. I was on the Rose bandwagon early in the year, jumped off and got hit by a bus. 72.00 scoring average won't get it done here.

Retief Goosen, 40/1 ........ Goose is an enigma wrapped in a conundrum. Obviously having won this tournament he's capable. Not the way he's played this year though. Can't win.

Stewart Cink, 40/ ........ Hung tough here earlier this year. Different scenario now. 6 top tens this year. Making lots of money. Can't hang with Phil and Tiger on a Sunday. Can't win.

Trevor Immelman, 40/1 ........ Last man with a shot at a grand slam. Lost to Leonard last week in a playoff. Gorgeous swing and a money putter. Can win.

Justin Leonard, 50/1 ........ Guess the bookmaker's weren't all that impressed with last week's win. Accurate driver, hits a ton of greens. Not probable, but certainly possible.

Mike Weir, 50/1 ........ Resurrected his game after a tough few years. Like Mike, but this is too much acreage for him. Can't win.

Stephen Ames, 50/1 ........ Another guy that rises in big situations. Other than match play with Woods. Solid game, good head. Could win.

Anthony Kim, 66/1, ...... At 66/1 this kid's worth throwing down a few bucks. Kills it off the tee. Great all around skills. Little experience in a pressure cooker like this. Who knows? Could win.

Boo Weekley, 66/1 ........ I'd have expected J.B. Holmes to have shorter odds than Boo. Guess that's why I'm not a professional gambler. "Aw Shucks" attitude may be just right for this event. Has the tools. Could win.

Henrik Stenson, 66/1 ........ Regarded much higher earlier in the season. Underachieved so far. Great player, not his year. Slimmest of chances out of respect for his talent.


Here's 3 Sleeper Picks for the more adventurous of you..........

Angel Cabrera, 80/1 ........ Defending champ 80/1? He's long and strong.

Martin Kaymer, 125/1 ........ Euro sensation just coming into his own.

Pat Perez, 150/1 ........ SoCal native. Has played this course over 250 times. Volatile temper's held him back since day #1. Maybe it's screwed on straight for four days.


If I missed anyone let me know. Tough to cover all 156.

Til' next,

2008 U.S. Open Preview - What You NEED To Know.

Year in and year out, the most difficult test in golf is upon us. Torrey Pines in La Jolla, CA is the host for the 2008 U.S. Open. Make no mistake though, this isn't even close to being the golf course that hosted the Buick Invitational in January. Longer, harder, faster are the keywords. Today we'll highlight the course, tomorrow the combatants.

The Course

7,643 yards, yes, Seven Thousand, Six Hundred, Forty Three yards. Longer than a Fellini flick. You would expect this favors the huge hitters. Perhaps, perhaps not. One thing for sure though, the weak hitters have no chance here. Mike Davis, the U.S.G.A.'s senior director of rules and competitions is responsible for the course set up. It's probably his influence that "softened" the set up for U.S. Open courses lately. Graduated rough will be used again with the 1st cut set at 1 3/4 inches. That's not too tough of a penalty for missing a fairway by a bit. It allows the player to make a solid strike on the ball, but diminishes his ability to produce green holding spin. 1st primary cut, or the "Crap, not there", cut is set at 2 1/2 inches. That's enough rough to make for some serious farming or balloon balls. The "real" rough, or the primary cut will be set at 3 1/2 inches. That's the kind of grass that says, "Get it back in play", no more, no less. Don't be surprised either if the 3 1/2 inches is measured today and by Thursday it's "find it with your foot" long.

All a player has to do to take the rough out of the equation is hit fairways. The 24-33 yard wide fairways. Oh, and be long as well. This baby is 7,643 yards long. Landing in the fairway doesn't mean you hit the fairway. Much drier conditions in June means a hard and fast golf course. Run outs in the rough are just as nasty as airing it there. If they survive all that, the greens are no picnic. Undulating and sloped and dry. It's been reported that they're running in the low 13s on the Stimpmeter for the practice sessions. I would expect that sometime, particularly this weekend, that number will start with a 14. Dry and sunny conditions are in order through the rest of the week. One condition that might favor early round players is that it's fog season in San Diego. Morning fog is a regular occurrence and dampens the course until it's burned off by the sun. Hey, any edge you can get in a U.S. Open.

Holes to Watch

Well, all of them of course, but of note......

#6 Converted par 5. Can play 515 yds. Has the green design to accept 3rd shots, ahving been a par 5. You may see 2nd shot lay ups and up and downs for par.

#9 612 yd. par 5. Only the longest guys, under the right conditions, can reach this monster in two.

#12 505 yd. par four. Tough as a $5.00 steak. ha options though. Their approach shots can be run up. Expect many different strategies here.

#16 225 yd. par 3. Tee boxes can be on either side of this hole giving it distinctive looks. The wind is a large factor on this one.

#18 Great finisher at the discretion of the U.S.G.A. they have the ability to move the tee box up and make it a reachable par five for most of the field. Eagle chances on 18 on Sunday in a U.S. Open? That's must see TV.

So, we've learned that the golfer that wins this has to be long off the tee, but accurate. He has to be strong enough to muscle the ball out of the rough when he misses a fairway. He has to generate spin to hold slick, undulating greens. But most of all, like almost every other golf tournament, he has to have hot putter for four days. Sound like anyone you know? If so, then let me know, because right now I'm clueless on this one.

Tomorrow we'll try to separate the wheat from the chaff and see if we can figure out who has the best chance of winning this dang thing.

Til' next,

2008 U.S. Open - No Clear Favorite.

Hogwash you say? Who's the favorite then? Tiger? Home course advantage I'll give you. Two month layoff won't help. Sure, he's Tiger Woods. Still, two weeks before a major he's still not playing 18 holes on his backyard course that looks nothing like Torrey Pines in mid-summer. Four days of walking in microwave heat, combined with some understandable ring rust, I don't see him as a favorite. Contender and possible winner? Of course. Just like everyone else. Well, almost everyone. His last U.S. Open win was six years ago at Bethpage. The Open isn't his favorite major I'd say.

Phil? #2 in the world Phil? He's never won the U.S. Open. He had won at Winged Foot in '06, but gave it back like a fisherman losing his grip on a trophy bass. You'd have to say that Geoff Ogilvy is as much a favorite as Phil, considering he can legally hold an Open trophy. Same as Angel Cabrera. Why wouldn't he be the favorite? He's the last guy to do it. Or Retief Goosen. He's the latest guy to win two Opens, '01, '04. Wouldn't that make him the favorite? Oops, where's Retief been this year? Ernie Els? Multiple Open winner. I guess the fact that Ernie's game's in disarray doesn't make him the favorite. Did I mention he's won two Opens?

Are you a current stats person? Go with who's hot? That would be Kenny Perry. Hot as a pistol. Just coming off a victory on a tough course in Jack's Memorial. Crap, he's not in the Open. He didn't want to go through 36 hole qualifying, so he'll be mowing the lawn and watching the Open like you and me. Sergio's pretty hot. Is he the Open favorite? Well, could be, but never won a major. Until he does I don't see him as a favorite in any of them. Tell him it's the Ryder Cup and he's my prohibitive favorite. Vijay? Contender, not the clear cut favorite. Stewart Cink has more top ten finishes than anyone, (6), in '08. Open Favorite? Nope. Corey Pavin leads in scrambling. Why? Because he has to. Heath Slocumb leads in proximity to the hole, (31' 3"), not the Open favorite. Driving distance is Bubba Watson, no surprise, (312.3 yds.). Unfortunately Bubba's not the Open favorite. Olin Browne leads in driving accuracy, (78.71). I'm not even sure if he's in the Open. (Sorry Mrs. Browne) If so, I wish him all the luck in the world, but he's not the favorite.

Stumped? That should make for a great tournament. However, Average Golfer indeed does have a favorite. If she'd agree to a fake mustache for a few days I'd pick Lorena Ochoa. Go ahead, bet against me. Thought so.

Til, next,