Tuesday, June 10, 2008

2008 U.S. Open - Who Can Win?

Sounds like a dumb question. Perhaps it is. Regardless, they still play all 72 holes. Who would have picked Angel Cabrera last year? I didn't, and if you say you did, and you're not from Argentina, you're lying. Angel's mother didn't pick him. Let's search for an Angel this year or wimp out and take a favorite. As is the tradition in Average Golfer we'll post the Ladbrokes odds for the top twenty players and throw in a long shot or two. Here we go........

Tiger Woods, 3/1 ........ Probably would have been 8/5 without the knee injury. I think he's going to have trouble with full shots out of US Open rough due to that knee. He'll be in some rough. His driving accuracy is only 59%. OK on the regular tour, trouble here. He won't win.

Phil Mickelson, 8/1 ........ Hasn't won a major since the disaster at Winged Foot. Wants this badly. Has the length and strength for the course. Played high school matches at Torrey Pines. Can win. Probably the safest bet on the board.

Sergio Garcia, 20/1 ........ Has the game for the course. Long and straight. 294 yds. and 65% of fairways. Magical around the greens. Won The Players to build confidence in big events. Has a great chance to win this if his head stays glued on.

Padraig Harrington, 25/1 ........ Playing well, but not major championship well. Still, a good enough player to always be a threat. Handles pressure well, i.e. last year's Open Championship. Could win, but doubtful.

Geoff Ogilvy, 33/1 ........ Previous winner. Good driver. Hits a lot of greens. Could win. Seems to play up to the importance of the tournament.

Jim Furyk, 33/1 ........ Another previous winner. 72% fairways hit which really helps here. Sneaky long off the tee when needed. As his putter goes, so go his chances. I like him. Average Golfer's pick to win.

Luke Donald, 33/1 ........ Can't win here. The Brits don't hold up to pressure on American soil for some reason, unless it's the Ryder Cup. Course is too long and nasty for Luke.

Vijay Singh, 33/1 ........ Hard to figure Vijay this year. Good finishes, good stats, no wins. Made some swing changes, although it looks the same to me. Strong player, can win.

Adam Scott, 40/1 ........ Broken pinky made him tumble down the odds board. Tough to grip a club with a broken finger, to say nothing of a 100+ mph hack out of 4 inch rough. Not this year for Adam.

Ernie Els, 40/1 ........ What's to say? Ernie's a mess until he shows me otherwise. Can't win. I love Ernie and will point out that he's a two time winner. Seems like a million years ago.

Justin Rose, 40/1 ........ See Luke Donald. I was on the Rose bandwagon early in the year, jumped off and got hit by a bus. 72.00 scoring average won't get it done here.

Retief Goosen, 40/1 ........ Goose is an enigma wrapped in a conundrum. Obviously having won this tournament he's capable. Not the way he's played this year though. Can't win.

Stewart Cink, 40/ ........ Hung tough here earlier this year. Different scenario now. 6 top tens this year. Making lots of money. Can't hang with Phil and Tiger on a Sunday. Can't win.

Trevor Immelman, 40/1 ........ Last man with a shot at a grand slam. Lost to Leonard last week in a playoff. Gorgeous swing and a money putter. Can win.

Justin Leonard, 50/1 ........ Guess the bookmaker's weren't all that impressed with last week's win. Accurate driver, hits a ton of greens. Not probable, but certainly possible.

Mike Weir, 50/1 ........ Resurrected his game after a tough few years. Like Mike, but this is too much acreage for him. Can't win.

Stephen Ames, 50/1 ........ Another guy that rises in big situations. Other than match play with Woods. Solid game, good head. Could win.

Anthony Kim, 66/1, ...... At 66/1 this kid's worth throwing down a few bucks. Kills it off the tee. Great all around skills. Little experience in a pressure cooker like this. Who knows? Could win.

Boo Weekley, 66/1 ........ I'd have expected J.B. Holmes to have shorter odds than Boo. Guess that's why I'm not a professional gambler. "Aw Shucks" attitude may be just right for this event. Has the tools. Could win.

Henrik Stenson, 66/1 ........ Regarded much higher earlier in the season. Underachieved so far. Great player, not his year. Slimmest of chances out of respect for his talent.

Here's 3 Sleeper Picks for the more adventurous of you..........

Angel Cabrera, 80/1 ........ Defending champ 80/1? He's long and strong.

Martin Kaymer, 125/1 ........ Euro sensation just coming into his own.

Pat Perez, 150/1 ........ SoCal native. Has played this course over 250 times. Volatile temper's held him back since day #1. Maybe it's screwed on straight for four days.

If I missed anyone let me know. Tough to cover all 156.

Til' next,


  1. What happened to Sean O'Hair? Had been playing well early in the year. Is he out? Or just ranked really low?

  2. O'Hair's not doing too badly. Ranked 35th in the world. He's in the Open. I had to cut off my opinion somewhere and decided on the top 20 odds favorites.

    Thanks for the visit!

  3. Ames looks like a decent bet at 50-1. He always seems to play well on very difficult courses. Another guy I like here is Kim.

  4. I'd have to agree on both. Ames has more experience at this level, bit Kim has an awesome game.

    As an aside, Sean O'Hair has withdrawn with a pulled chest muscle. He's been replaced by 47 yr. old Brit Gary Wolstenholme.