Golf and NBA Seasons Over.

This past weekend golf made it's unofficial exit from it's so-called season with the final event at the Disney-plex. Luke Donald captured it with a stirring Sunday 64. One would have thought that the win had locked up Player of the Year honors for Donald, but not so freakin' fast. The PGA Tour has decided to postpone POY balloting until after the WGC-HSBC Champions tourney, Nov. 3-6, in Shanghai, China. The prize money won't count as official money, but a win will count as a win. Makes Mr. Donald wonder what a guy has to do to win an award. FedUp Cup, Fall Finish, China this or that, let's just keep playing until the guy we want wins. We're not crying for Luke. He's done rather well for himself. It's the governing bodies that are blowing the legitimacy of their "organizations" out their tailpipes. Regardless, with the World Series and NFL action only wives, girlfriends and families were tuning in.

The golf nuts probably caught what they thought was a faux pas in the title pronouncing golf season over. The PGA Tour website lists the CIMB Asia Pacific Classic Malaysia, the aforementioned WGC-HSBC, and the President's Cup as left on the schedule. What, no Shark Shootout, or Tiger's Limited Field Event That Nobody  Wants To Play Anymore? With the exception of some minor rooting interest in the Prez Cup I'll see you in January in Maui. Pro golf never really ends anymore if you like to fly.

One death notice that's not premature is the NBA season. At least I hope that's the case. I can't think of a more inane professional sport that's lost it's appeal with the public. I used to be an avid NBA fan. Never on top of my list, but always in contention. A meaningless regular season where all but Scooter Store devotees make the playoffs did it for me. Basketball in June doesn't settle well with this Average Golfer. The trashing of the traveling rule to accommodate His Airness didn't help, nor did the doing away of what used to be called "palming the ball". Yeah, sure, I'm dating myself, but those fundamental changes altered the game into a contest of run and dunk. If you're a 6'10' Usain Bolt you've mastered the sport. I favor keeping 10' rims, but making the court larger. Kinda like Canadian football.  On the money issue I side with the players. If some moron owner is willing to pay a player ten times what they're worth, should they be expected take less? The owners are grabbing back control and the only recourse the players have is to withhold their services. Y'all come back in 2012 or 13 with a new found appreciation for each other and a bigger court. I still won't watch.







Swing hard, they'll make more.

2011 U.S. Open - Odds and Expert Picks

The 2011 version of the strictest test in golf, The US Open, will be contested at Congressional Country Club in Bethesda, MD. As per usual we here at Average Golfer will list the betting favorites, comment on their chances, and throw a few picks out there to enhance your wagering prospects. The Robert Trent Jones design, last renovated in 2006 by Rees Jones, will play up to 7,574 yds. and par 71. That makes it the 2nd longest Open in history after Torrey Pines.

Without further ado, here's our synopsis....

Phil Mickelson, 14:1 - After so many Open close calls, Phil's the obvious sentimental choice. His game's been a bit shaky this year and I see him possibly contending on Sunday, but doubt he'll win it.

Lee Westwood, 14:1 - Co-favorite. Been world #1 recently. Rock steady putter needed to win an Open. Not his forte. Don't see it.

Luke Donald, 14:1 - Co-co-favorite. World #1. Has the tools, especially around and on the greens. Rain would hurt with his lack of length on this behemoth. Possible.

Rory McIlroy, 20:1 - If he's in it on Sunday we'll get to see if he's shaken off Masters debacle. Can make birdies in bunches. Possible for him to win if his major championship memory is short.

Dustin Johnson, 25:1 - Long enough. Needs to show a maturity he hasn't shown in previous majors. LaCava on the bag should help. Possible, not likely. 

Nick Watney, 25:1 - Great all around game. Showed gravitas of late on bigger stages. Could win.  

Hunter Mahan, 25:1 - All the tools. Would have to elevate to this stage. Certain aloofness that seems to hold him back. Not this time.   

Matt Kuchar, 25:1 - Guaranteed top ten whenever he tees it up. Like him a lot this week.

Steve Stricker, 25:1 - Perhaps tour's best clutch putter. Game's peaking at the right time. Accurate with great course management. My pick for this year's champ.

Martin Kaymer, 33:1 - Disappeared after becoming world #1. Not sure he desires to be the best. Rather passive demeanor. Maybe next year.

KJ Choi, 33:1 - Loves it here with good reason. Playing very well of late. Can handle slick Open greens. Could win. 

Justin Rose, 50:1 - Seems like long odds on great player. Laser-like iron game. Would tale a lot, but could win.

Graeme McDowell, 50:1 - Uncharacteristic blow-up holes and rounds have cost him this year. Defending champ would require an epiphany and return to last year's game. Too much to ask I'm afraid.

Bubba Watson, 50:1 - Another where odds seem out of whack with performance. Definitely can handle the length. Shown he knows how to win with two this year.Good value bet.

Jim Furyk, 50:1 - Tough to ever count him out, but hasn't been the Furyk of old. Will struggle with length. Won't win.

Jason Day, 50:1 - Nice talent. Hot and cold. Cold too often to win here on this stage.

David Toms, 50:1 - Two months ago I'd have say "No way". Looks like the Toms of old. Distance shortage here won't help. Won't win.

AVERAGE GOLFER 2011 US OPEN PICKS

1. Steve Stricker
2. KJ Choi
3. Nick Watney

Dark Horse..... Sergio Garcia


Keep in mind, as a US Open, the field is stuffed with great players. Odds are only estimates by bookies to even out the betting to guard against a catastrophic loss when a ton of money is placed on the winner. As an indication of such, here's some players with a decent shot to win whose odds are 66:1+....... Scott, Schwartzel, Goosen, Ogilvy, Casey, Fowler, Baddeley, Els, Quiros, Garcia, and Yang. Strength of field is what makes this a true championship.

*As per usual, Average Golfer is not responsible for any betting losses and this column is not intended to be a testimonial for any one golfer. Additionally, Average Golfer would expect any winners using this column to profit from said picks to forward a reasonable cut of their winnings. 20% is considered customary. Odds provided by Ladbrokes.






Bet early and often,

2011 U.S. Open - Early Odds and Sharp Opinion

June, for a while there I wasn't sure we were going to make it this far. From snow here in May to doomsday predictions, June seemed like the longest of long shots. Regardless, here we are and the 2011 version of the US Open at Congressional Country Club in Bethesda, MD will apparently occur. The venerable British betting house Ladbrokes has an early line. The odds quoted here were as of this morning. I curiously noted however that the US Open board is temporarily down on Ladbrokes site. Perhaps due to the recent withdrawal of said Tiger Woods, who evidently needs more time in the shop before he re-emerges on a golf course. No mind though, we have enough early info to form some strident opinions.   

As of this morning Woods was traded at 14:1. Odds are 1,000:1 that he undergoes a miracle cure and persuades the USGA to re-enter him.    

Phil Mickelson at 12:1 seems to me to be a bit of a sucker bet given his recent play and the need to locate Congressional's stingy fairways from the tee box.

Luke Donald shares lowest odds with Phil at 12:1. Sounds good to me. Donald can dissect a course and that may be the required procedure here.     

Donald's fellow Brit Lee Westwood is listed at 14:1. His putter coupled with Open bathtub greens may spell less than 1st.  

Rory McIlroy's offered at 16:1. His play certainly warrants it and there's only one way to tell if his Masters' scab has healed. Would be interesting to see the lad in the mix on Sunday. 

Dustin Johnson and Martin Kaymer at 25:1.  Wasn't it not that long ago that Kaymer was the World #1? Did it not suit him? Johnson can win any time he tees it up. Hopefully Joe LaCava can show him how to put the stupid decision pills back in the bottle.

It's not often you see the defending champ at 33:1, but that's where Graeme McDowell rests. A statement on the recent condition of his game methinks. Hope he does well. He seems like a genuinely good dude.

Matt Kuchar and Steve Stricker 25:1 Nick Watney 33:1. These beg to be opportunities to make money. Kuchar's an automatic top ten everywhere. Stricker's a pin-seeking, putt-making machine and Watney's tasted victory with a swing that's the sweetest this side of Elkington. Bet 'em all hard.

David Toms at 40:1 may be a wish, but WTH? 

See above for Geoff Ogilvy. Former champ at 40:1.

Feeling risky? Here's a trio at 50:1 that could fatten your wallet. Bubba Watson, Jim Furyk, and Sergio Garcia. Oh, BTW, Furyk's won one of these.   

Where does the time go? picks....  Former champs Retief Goosen, 66:1 and Ernie Els, 80:1.   

Extreme value picks.....  Stewart Cink and Jeff Overton at 125:1. Davis Love III and two time winner this year, Mark Wilson, at 200:1.

We'll update as the Open approaches and post Average Golfer's final expert picks on June 13. 








Swing hard, look up,







 

Kaymer/Donald Final at Accenture Match Play

Martin Kaymer sealed the OWGR # 1 spot and bought himself a ticket to tomorrow's final at the WGC-Accenture World Match Play Championship, besting Bubba Watson on the last hole of the semi-final. The match was neck and neck most of the way with Kaymer calmly sinking a 5 footer on 18 for the win. The German had earlier beaten Miguel Angel Jimenez 1 up, surviving a furious rally by the Spaniard who had been down most of the match. Watson outlasted, and I mean outlasted, JB Holmes after having been down five holes through ten played. Holmes imploded in the style he'd done years earlier with Tiger Woods. Holmes is a snail on the course and never was it so evident as today. 45 minutes to play two holes as Holmes made side trips through the Arizona desert. At lease no one will have to suffer through a repeat Holmes performance in tomorrow's consolation match.  

Kaymer will face Luke Donald in the finale. Donald surgically dissected both Ryan Moore and Matt Kuchar to earn his berth in the championship match. He whipped Moore 5 and 4, had some lunch, then returned to barbecue Kuchar 6 and 5. All Donald does this week is hit greens and make virtually every putt he looks at. Good formula for match play.  

Expect an interesting match with a good contrast in styles. Donald's precision vs. Kaymer's power. The early word is that some extreme weather may be passing through the venue with a threat of snow. I'd hate to see weather make a difference, but Kaymer's power would pay off in difficult conditions. That being said, I'm pulling for Donald. 






Swing hard, look up,