2011 U.S. Open - Odds and Expert Picks

The 2011 version of the strictest test in golf, The US Open, will be contested at Congressional Country Club in Bethesda, MD. As per usual we here at Average Golfer will list the betting favorites, comment on their chances, and throw a few picks out there to enhance your wagering prospects. The Robert Trent Jones design, last renovated in 2006 by Rees Jones, will play up to 7,574 yds. and par 71. That makes it the 2nd longest Open in history after Torrey Pines.

Without further ado, here's our synopsis....

Phil Mickelson, 14:1 - After so many Open close calls, Phil's the obvious sentimental choice. His game's been a bit shaky this year and I see him possibly contending on Sunday, but doubt he'll win it.

Lee Westwood, 14:1 - Co-favorite. Been world #1 recently. Rock steady putter needed to win an Open. Not his forte. Don't see it.

Luke Donald, 14:1 - Co-co-favorite. World #1. Has the tools, especially around and on the greens. Rain would hurt with his lack of length on this behemoth. Possible.

Rory McIlroy, 20:1 - If he's in it on Sunday we'll get to see if he's shaken off Masters debacle. Can make birdies in bunches. Possible for him to win if his major championship memory is short.

Dustin Johnson, 25:1 - Long enough. Needs to show a maturity he hasn't shown in previous majors. LaCava on the bag should help. Possible, not likely. 

Nick Watney, 25:1 - Great all around game. Showed gravitas of late on bigger stages. Could win.  

Hunter Mahan, 25:1 - All the tools. Would have to elevate to this stage. Certain aloofness that seems to hold him back. Not this time.   

Matt Kuchar, 25:1 - Guaranteed top ten whenever he tees it up. Like him a lot this week.

Steve Stricker, 25:1 - Perhaps tour's best clutch putter. Game's peaking at the right time. Accurate with great course management. My pick for this year's champ.

Martin Kaymer, 33:1 - Disappeared after becoming world #1. Not sure he desires to be the best. Rather passive demeanor. Maybe next year.

KJ Choi, 33:1 - Loves it here with good reason. Playing very well of late. Can handle slick Open greens. Could win. 

Justin Rose, 50:1 - Seems like long odds on great player. Laser-like iron game. Would tale a lot, but could win.

Graeme McDowell, 50:1 - Uncharacteristic blow-up holes and rounds have cost him this year. Defending champ would require an epiphany and return to last year's game. Too much to ask I'm afraid.

Bubba Watson, 50:1 - Another where odds seem out of whack with performance. Definitely can handle the length. Shown he knows how to win with two this year.Good value bet.

Jim Furyk, 50:1 - Tough to ever count him out, but hasn't been the Furyk of old. Will struggle with length. Won't win.

Jason Day, 50:1 - Nice talent. Hot and cold. Cold too often to win here on this stage.

David Toms, 50:1 - Two months ago I'd have say "No way". Looks like the Toms of old. Distance shortage here won't help. Won't win.

AVERAGE GOLFER 2011 US OPEN PICKS

1. Steve Stricker
2. KJ Choi
3. Nick Watney

Dark Horse..... Sergio Garcia


Keep in mind, as a US Open, the field is stuffed with great players. Odds are only estimates by bookies to even out the betting to guard against a catastrophic loss when a ton of money is placed on the winner. As an indication of such, here's some players with a decent shot to win whose odds are 66:1+....... Scott, Schwartzel, Goosen, Ogilvy, Casey, Fowler, Baddeley, Els, Quiros, Garcia, and Yang. Strength of field is what makes this a true championship.

*As per usual, Average Golfer is not responsible for any betting losses and this column is not intended to be a testimonial for any one golfer. Additionally, Average Golfer would expect any winners using this column to profit from said picks to forward a reasonable cut of their winnings. 20% is considered customary. Odds provided by Ladbrokes.






Bet early and often,

2011 U.S. Open - Early Odds and Sharp Opinion

June, for a while there I wasn't sure we were going to make it this far. From snow here in May to doomsday predictions, June seemed like the longest of long shots. Regardless, here we are and the 2011 version of the US Open at Congressional Country Club in Bethesda, MD will apparently occur. The venerable British betting house Ladbrokes has an early line. The odds quoted here were as of this morning. I curiously noted however that the US Open board is temporarily down on Ladbrokes site. Perhaps due to the recent withdrawal of said Tiger Woods, who evidently needs more time in the shop before he re-emerges on a golf course. No mind though, we have enough early info to form some strident opinions.   

As of this morning Woods was traded at 14:1. Odds are 1,000:1 that he undergoes a miracle cure and persuades the USGA to re-enter him.    

Phil Mickelson at 12:1 seems to me to be a bit of a sucker bet given his recent play and the need to locate Congressional's stingy fairways from the tee box.

Luke Donald shares lowest odds with Phil at 12:1. Sounds good to me. Donald can dissect a course and that may be the required procedure here.     

Donald's fellow Brit Lee Westwood is listed at 14:1. His putter coupled with Open bathtub greens may spell less than 1st.  

Rory McIlroy's offered at 16:1. His play certainly warrants it and there's only one way to tell if his Masters' scab has healed. Would be interesting to see the lad in the mix on Sunday. 

Dustin Johnson and Martin Kaymer at 25:1.  Wasn't it not that long ago that Kaymer was the World #1? Did it not suit him? Johnson can win any time he tees it up. Hopefully Joe LaCava can show him how to put the stupid decision pills back in the bottle.

It's not often you see the defending champ at 33:1, but that's where Graeme McDowell rests. A statement on the recent condition of his game methinks. Hope he does well. He seems like a genuinely good dude.

Matt Kuchar and Steve Stricker 25:1 Nick Watney 33:1. These beg to be opportunities to make money. Kuchar's an automatic top ten everywhere. Stricker's a pin-seeking, putt-making machine and Watney's tasted victory with a swing that's the sweetest this side of Elkington. Bet 'em all hard.

David Toms at 40:1 may be a wish, but WTH? 

See above for Geoff Ogilvy. Former champ at 40:1.

Feeling risky? Here's a trio at 50:1 that could fatten your wallet. Bubba Watson, Jim Furyk, and Sergio Garcia. Oh, BTW, Furyk's won one of these.   

Where does the time go? picks....  Former champs Retief Goosen, 66:1 and Ernie Els, 80:1.   

Extreme value picks.....  Stewart Cink and Jeff Overton at 125:1. Davis Love III and two time winner this year, Mark Wilson, at 200:1.

We'll update as the Open approaches and post Average Golfer's final expert picks on June 13. 








Swing hard, look up,







 

Tiger Woods Hosts AT &T National - Odds and Picks

Venerable Congressional Country Club in Bethesda, MD is the locale for this week's Tiger-Fest, the AT&T National. Woods missed playing in his own event last year due to knee surgery. This year he's present and the odds-on favorite to win. This tournament isn't to be confused with his December invitee-only match in California, held typically in December, it's latest permutation being the Chevron World Challenge, a sponsor seeking missile that's rapidly developing the cred to be considered a regular Tour event. No such hype for this week's partakings as the the venue and the association with it's previous life being the Kemper Open guarantees recognition. Congressional's roots hark back to 1924 with a pantheon of famous establishers to include Calvin Coolidge, Warren Harding, Woodrow Wilson, William H. Taft, Harvey S. Firestone, William C. Carnegie, William Randolph Hearst and Walter P. Chrysler. Gee, if you couldn't get a money game going there, why bother? The Tour stop will be played the next two years at Aronimink Golf Club near Philadelphia. Congressional's hosting the US Open in 2011 and evidently can't hold a four day tournament with anyone else teeing it up for a two year window. That's kind of in stark contrast to this year's Open at Bethpage where the last public foursome was finishing their round as the big boys teed it up, or something like that. Congressional will play to 7,255 yards this week and a par of 70 whacks. Anthony Kim defends.

Let's see how our parimutuel pals at Ladbrokes see the outcome.......

	T Woods	2.50
	H Mahan	17.00
	J Furyk	17.00
	Anthony Kim	21.00
	P Casey	21.00
	S O'Hair	26.00
	M Weir	34.00
	R Allenby	34.00
	V Singh	34.00
	L Glover	41.00
	N Watney	41.00
	S Marino	41.00
	B Weekley	51.00
	Bubba Watson	51.00
	D Love III	51.00
	J Senden	51.00
	K J Choi	51.00
	P Goydos	51.00
	R Moore	51.00

Average Golfer is going with a "triple box" of Woods, Casey, and O'Hair, in any order. Bubba Watson will be my dark horse. A number of international players will tee it at the Open de France. They include stalwarts Poulter, Harrington, Westwood, and Cabrera. This week is typically considered an Open Championship tune- up on both sides of the pond.

It shapes up to be a perfect mid-summer golf weekend. Tee it up with your regular foursome, then relax in front of the tube with a beverage and catch some action. Enjoy.


Til' next,