Hogwash you say? Who's the favorite then? Tiger? Home course advantage I'll give you. Two month layoff won't help. Sure, he's Tiger Woods. Still, two weeks before a major he's still not playing 18 holes on his backyard course that looks nothing like Torrey Pines in mid-summer. Four days of walking in microwave heat, combined with some understandable ring rust, I don't see him as a favorite. Contender and possible winner? Of course. Just like everyone else. Well, almost everyone. His last U.S. Open win was six years ago at Bethpage. The Open isn't his favorite major I'd say.
Phil? #2 in the world Phil? He's never won the U.S. Open. He had won at Winged Foot in '06, but gave it back like a fisherman losing his grip on a trophy bass. You'd have to say that Geoff Ogilvy is as much a favorite as Phil, considering he can legally hold an Open trophy. Same as Angel Cabrera. Why wouldn't he be the favorite? He's the last guy to do it. Or Retief Goosen. He's the latest guy to win two Opens, '01, '04. Wouldn't that make him the favorite? Oops, where's Retief been this year? Ernie Els? Multiple Open winner. I guess the fact that Ernie's game's in disarray doesn't make him the favorite. Did I mention he's won two Opens?
Are you a current stats person? Go with who's hot? That would be Kenny Perry. Hot as a pistol. Just coming off a victory on a tough course in Jack's Memorial. Crap, he's not in the Open. He didn't want to go through 36 hole qualifying, so he'll be mowing the lawn and watching the Open like you and me. Sergio's pretty hot. Is he the Open favorite? Well, could be, but never won a major. Until he does I don't see him as a favorite in any of them. Tell him it's the Ryder Cup and he's my prohibitive favorite. Vijay? Contender, not the clear cut favorite. Stewart Cink has more top ten finishes than anyone, (6), in '08. Open Favorite? Nope. Corey Pavin leads in scrambling. Why? Because he has to. Heath Slocumb leads in proximity to the hole, (31' 3"), not the Open favorite. Driving distance is Bubba Watson, no surprise, (312.3 yds.). Unfortunately Bubba's not the Open favorite. Olin Browne leads in driving accuracy, (78.71). I'm not even sure if he's in the Open. (Sorry Mrs. Browne) If so, I wish him all the luck in the world, but he's not the favorite.
Stumped? That should make for a great tournament. However, Average Golfer indeed does have a favorite. If she'd agree to a fake mustache for a few days I'd pick Lorena Ochoa. Go ahead, bet against me. Thought so.