THE TOUR Championship 2009 - Odds and Expert Picks

The East Lake Golf Club hosts the dual honor of THE TOUR Championship and the FedUp Cup finale. $10,000,000 to the Cup winner with an additional $1,350,000 for the tournament winner. Not chicken feed.The top five in the dizzying rating system can clinch the Cup with a win. The others need a confluence of events that would stagger Stephen Hawking.

We're here to pick the winner and offer stunning commentary on the favorite's chances. No more, no less. So, with our usual assistance from betting house Ladbrokes, may the games begin.....



Tiger Woods, Even - By all rights should win. Stupefying odds difference between him and the field. Still, as goes the putter.....

Jim Furyk, 14:1 - No wins this year, just solid play. 6 top 10s at East Lake. Laser irons. Could win.

Padraig Harrington, 14:1 - Swing changes kicked in. If he avoids 8s and worse, could win.

Steve Stricker, 16:1 - Should be rested. Kinda gassed at last. Hot putter? Could win.

Zach Johnson, 20:1 - Has course record 60. Great iron player. Could win.

Phil Mickelson, 20:1 - Who knows? Can't get a read on his game after a very tough year off the course. Could, probably won't.

Retief Goosen, 25:1 - Sneaks up on you. Easy to forget about. Hot putter = could win.

Sean O'Hair, 25:1 - Has the game. Implodes at worst times. Won't win.

Hunter Mahan, 33:1 - Average Golfer's been on him all year. Hasn't come through. Might here.

Dustin Johnson, 40:1 - Bomber with game. May surprise. Take him as a dark horse.

Ernie Els, 40:1 - Better of late. Still no killer instinct. Might win if others fall off. Won't snatch it.

Geoff Ogilvy, 40:1 - Underperformed all year. No reason to think that'll change here. Won't win.

Luke Donald, 40:1 - Nope, not here. Take him in my scramble though!

Scott Verplank, 40:1 - Remarkable putter. 2nd in last event. Longest of shots. Like him though.

Notes on Others......

Stewart Cink at 66:1 is a nice bet. Heath Slocum at 100:1 is in the top five FedUp Cup standings, which means a win nabs him the 10 million. US Open champ Lucas Glover is a bewildering 66:1. Masters winner Angel Cabrera is posting at 50:1. Not exactly much respect for this year's major winners. Full 30 player field.

The Atlanta area has endured torrential rains of late with the outlook of more of the same. East Lake switched to Bermuda greens which should drain better than bent grass. Officials were predicting a 12 on the Stimpmeter, regardless of the recent water. Expect pin seeking to be rewarded and the best iron players of the week to be right there at the end. The course will play at 7,154 yards, par 72.

Average Golfer's Picks

1. Woods
2. Furyk
3. Toms

Dark Horse. Just one in a 30 man field. Cink.

Bet early and often.




Til' next,

Halfway at Hazeltine - Tiger's Tail Lights

A four stroke lead at the mid point of a major for Tiger Woods is almost too much to rally from. Woods shot a -2, 70 today and put the clubs away carrying a four stroke advantage over a host of challengers at the 91st PGA Championship. Only a sloppy chip and errant ten footer by Woods on the 18th hole kept it from being five. Padraig Harrington did his best to remain within sniffing distance, but backpedaled 3 strokes to land at -3 for the tourney so far. He was grouped with Ross Fisher with a stellar 68, Lucas Glover, Brendan Jones, and two-time PGA Champion Vijay Singh. Ian Poulter and Lee Westwood held up the Brit contingent at -2. Full field scores.

Who's gone?

Big names sent packing by missing the +4 cut include Stuart Appleby, Sergio Garcia, 78 today, Davis Love III, Justin Rose, Bubba Watson, Nick Watney, Steve Stricker, and Adam Scott after a dreadful 82, 79. Rumor says that Scott has jettisoned Butch Harmon as his coach after watching his career sink. Perhaps Butchie will call JD.

What's next?

What's up next is for the one or more of the chasers to step up tomorrow, fire at pins, and hope to go low in an effort to chase down Woods. From what I've seen of Hazeltine so far it doesn't appear to be the type of layout where Woods would post any huge numbers and retreat back to the masses. Relatively open, plenty long and drying out play to Woods strong suits, length and the world's best short game for the inevitable missed greens on enormous holes, especially the par fours. The poa greens that Woods putts better than anyone are just frosting. He's swinging well and I wouldn't count on that changing in the next two days. So who has the moxy and game to back it up to narrow the deficit? Tune in, tomorrow should reveal most of the remaining cards in this deck. I expect Sunday will be a barn burner or a coronation. Saturday's the key in this one.

Be there.




Til' next,

91st PGA Championship - Odds and Expert Picks.

Wouldn't you know, just like that I'm an expert. Hard to be too expert with betting at the 91st PGA Championship with the line so skewed by Tiger Woods, a stupefying 2.75:1 set by our resident expert friends at Ladbrokes, the renowned British betting house. Average Golfer will throw you his two cents for free as anyone with any cajones will look outside Mr. Woods to make a play. Anything less pays more humbly than a passbook savings account. If I was at the track I'd be wheeling Woods in an exacta box just to make beer money.

We'll cover the players to 51:1, which is only a span of thirteen! The finish will include picks to win and dark horses for those of you with more money than brains. Ready? Then pay attention. After all, somebody here has to........


Tiger Woods, 2.75:1 - Ridiculous. Going for 3 in a row. C'mon, you didn't come here to earn a pittance. Should win.

Lee Westwood, 26:1 - Looking like a pretty damn good bridesmaid. We're number two! We're number two!

Paddy Harrington, 26:1 - Assuming he's not shell shocked from last week, could win.

Phil Mickelson, 26:1 - Rumor has him hitting it squirrely in practice. One of the few that can score with his B game. Doubtful, too much rust.

Hunter Mahan, 34:1 - Long, straight, great short game. What's not to like? Could win.

Retief Goosen, 41:1 - I've picked Goose to show up all year. He hasn't. He won't.

Sergio Garcia, 41:1 - Game suits the course. Head is on a milk carton. Doubtful.

Steve Stricker, 41:1 - Solid Strick. Look behind you, there he is. Could win.

Angel Cabrera, 51:1 - Long odds for major winner. Can air it out here. Possible.

Geoff Ogilvy, 51:1 - M.I.A. Odds on recent rep alone. Not Michael Campbell, but..... Won't win.

Henrik Stenson, 51:1 - Robot golf will only get you so far. Naked act only works once. Won't win.

Kenny Perry, 51:1 - Layout fits. Get the putter humming and........Perhaps.

Stewart Cink, 51:1 - Broke his maiden. Got the tools and all the other cliches. Could win.


Over 51:1 includes a horde of great players. Kim, Villegas, Furyk, Allenby, Fisher, Singh, Els, McIlroy, ad nauseum. As stated, Woods' dominance throws a giant monkey wrench into the works. Regardless, I'll pick away........

Average Golfer's Top Three, (In no particular order)

1. Woods
2. Mahan
3. Harrington


Dark Horses for the Adventurous

1. Rich Beem, Well, of course!
2. Mark Wilson
3. Kevin Streelman

There you go. Free picks. Gratis, on the house. Bet early and often and no bitching.



Til' next,

Tiger Woods Waltzes Into 91st PGA Championship.

It would be hard to imagine coming into the last major of the year on a hotter streak than Tiger Woods. Victories in his last two tournaments, albeit almost by default last week at the WGC-Bridestone Invitational, bode well for fine performance from him at the 91st PGA Championship at Hazeltine National Golf Club in Chaska, MN. 99 of the top 100 world ranked players are here, so this is no cakewalk. Regardless, Woods seems to be the best equipped for the challenge. Factor in his obvious desire to snag one major to complete his year and continued chase of Jack and this should be riveting. 91st PGA Championship Full Field.

Hazeltine will play as the longest major in history at 7,674 yards. That's 4.36 miles in layman's terms, longer than 10th grade math. Many players interviewed however have commented that the course is "right there in front of you", meaning the length is mitigated somewhat by be able to see where you need to position yourself to hit fairways and greens. Longish clubs into par four greens will be the order of the day with the difference being Tiger's 3 iron vs Jim Furyk's hybrid, neither club described as a scoring implement. So, as fitting in a major, par should be precious with expected bogeys figuring into the mix. Weather and wetness will be the unknown. A wet course will decidedly favor bombers, while if the fairways dry, the field should crowd up.

Tiger, defending champion Padraig Harrington, and Rich Beem, the 2002 winner here, will share a pairing for the first two days. Interesting group considering what transpired at the end of last week's event. I'll be paying attention to the pace of play, although I doubt it will be foremost on PGA Tour official's work lists on Thursday. Average Golfer knows that pace of play is a hot button issue and negatively affects the game in general. Still, as in other sports, I feel that officials should never become part of the outcome or even the story. The answer? Of course I have none.

Stayed tuned for picks and odds tomorrow.



Til' next,

U.S. Takes 1st Day Lead at 37th Ryder Cup - Must Be a Misprint.

If the 37th Ryder Cup ended after just one day the Cup would be miraculously returning to American terra firma. The end of day 1 gave the Americans a 5-2 advantage in formats that typically aren't their strong suit. Morning foursomes gave the US a 3-1 advantage and they'll finish the afternoon fourballs with no less than a 2-2 point split. For individual match scores from both sessions, here's a link to PGA.com to fill in the details.

The US squad has an obvious spring in their step. Raucous home town throngs yelling USA!, USA!, will do that for you. Six rookies, without the stain of Ryder Cup defeat may be just what the doctor ordered. If what you've been doin' ain't workin', do something else. Led by head cheerleader Boo Weekly, the injection of youth may have just resurrected the American phoenix. Conversely, the European with the most to lose, Ian Poulter, seemed to show obvious signs of pressure to justify his existence. It's too early to pop champagne, but a trend is a trend. Don't expect the Euros to lie down, but expect some wonderment in their camp about how they lost day #1. The Brit press must be chomping at their respective bits analyzing captain Faldo's strategy, or lack thereof. He's surely glad he's on this side of the pond after a day 1 thumping.

Day 2 will reveal a lot. Will the Euros rally? Was day 1 for the US a cosmic aberration to settle a score that has been lopsided at best? Tune in and find out.

Til' next,


*Average Golfer late scoring note. The final match of the day, Holmes/Weekly vs Westwood/Hansen was halved leaving the sore at the end of day 1, US 5 1/2 - Europe 2 1/2.

1st Round Results - 2008 BMW Championship - FedExCup

Paddy went home. Tournament resumes tomorrow Thursday, 9/5/2008, Gustav providing. 18 tomorrow, 36 on Saturday.

Til' next,

Mickelson vs Harrington - The Case for #2.

Assuming the obvious, that Tiger Woods is firmly entrenched as the world's number one golfer, who is second best? Who deserves the title as most likely to challenge El Tigre when it matters, in a big tournament? The majors, the WGC events and the handful of other contests with packed fields and high drama.

After Sunday's PGA Championship victory and especially being his second consecutive major it would be easy to proclaim Padraig Harrington as number two in the world, a spot perennially occupied by Phil Mickelson. You'd be wrong. As of week 32, ending 08/10/2008 Phil has compiled 9.87 Official World Golf Ranking points compared to Padraig's 7.85. At the beginning of 2008, week 1, Phil held his customary #2 position with 8.555 points versus Padraig's 5.472, which at the time was good enough for 6th place in the world standings. So, despite his two major victories Harrington has only climbed to #3. Of course rankings aren't based on major performance alone, or the current year by itself. Keep in mind though that 3 of the last 6 major trophies are in Padraig's living room.

Digging a little deeper we'll see that this year Harrington has played in 12 events with 2 wins, (both majors), 1 3rd place, 6 top tens, and 9 top 25s. Mickelson has played in 17 events with 2 wins, 1 2nd, 6 top tens, and 16 top 25s. Mickelson has amassed 18,241 Fedex Cup points and Harrington 15,555. The Fedex Cup point differential is due to the additional 5 events for Phil. For 2007 and 2008 Phil has 5 victories to Padraig's 3. The question is would you trade 3 major wins for 5 regular tour wins? I know what my answer would be. On the heels of his PGA Championship win Harrington leads the European Tour Order of Merit standings. Phil obviously isn't on the radar in Europe.

I would submit to you that the #2 player in the world is Harrington. I believe the rankings are too weighted toward past performance and are without enough emphasis on major tournaments and quality fields. 3 of the last 6 majors over two years is good enough for me. How about you?

Til' next,

90th PGA Championship, Harrington.

Crucial late round putting gave Padraig Harrington his second major trophy in as many starts. His victory in the 90th PGA Championship placed him halfway to the coveted "Paddy Slam". Harrington's second consecutive 66 gave him a two shot victory over a game Sergio Garcia and early 4th round leader Ben Curtis. Harrington became the 1st European winner of the PGA since Tommy Armour in 1930. Camilo Villegas finished strong and tied for 4th with a faltering Henrik Stenson. Steve Flesch's 69 gave him solo 6th. Phil Mickelson wilted to a tie for 7th with Andres Romero. Only 3 players finished under par at the notoriously tough Oakland Hills. Harrington at -3 and Garcia and Curtis at -1.

It was a three way battle most of the day in cool and blustery conditions. Garcia had the lead at the turn with Curtis and Harrington in close pursuit. With Garcia's water logged bogey on the 16th hole, Harrington nailed his birdie putt to start a streak of three straight pressure putts that ultimately sealed it for him. A birdie on the par three 17th gave him the lead when Garcia missed from about 4 feet. A cool, calm 15 footer on 18 cemented his win. Curtis hung around on the back nine , but never found the crucial birdie needed to share the lead. Strangely Harrington, in the view from the TV camera, appeared not to blink , even once, on the back nine. That steely determination is precisely what been lacking from competitors in the Tiger era. Maybe a challenge has been raised for next April in Augusta. Padraig will enter that tournament with a two major winning streak. Stay tuned.

Congratulations on hoisting the Wanamaker Trophy Padraig. He's now won 3 of the last 6 majors. I'll go out on a limb and predict the pints will be flowing in Dublin tonight.

Til' next,