Wouldn't you know, just like that I'm an expert. Hard to be too expert with betting at the 91st PGA Championship with the line so skewed by Tiger Woods, a stupefying 2.75:1 set by our resident expert friends at Ladbrokes, the renowned British betting house. Average Golfer will throw you his two cents for free as anyone with any cajones will look outside Mr. Woods to make a play. Anything less pays more humbly than a passbook savings account. If I was at the track I'd be wheeling Woods in an exacta box just to make beer money.
We'll cover the players to 51:1, which is only a span of thirteen! The finish will include picks to win and dark horses for those of you with more money than brains. Ready? Then pay attention. After all, somebody here has to........
Tiger Woods, 2.75:1 - Ridiculous. Going for 3 in a row. C'mon, you didn't come here to earn a pittance. Should win.
Lee Westwood, 26:1 - Looking like a pretty damn good bridesmaid. We're number two! We're number two!
Paddy Harrington, 26:1 - Assuming he's not shell shocked from last week, could win.
Phil Mickelson, 26:1 - Rumor has him hitting it squirrely in practice. One of the few that can score with his B game. Doubtful, too much rust.
Hunter Mahan, 34:1 - Long, straight, great short game. What's not to like? Could win.
Retief Goosen, 41:1 - I've picked Goose to show up all year. He hasn't. He won't.
Sergio Garcia, 41:1 - Game suits the course. Head is on a milk carton. Doubtful.
Steve Stricker, 41:1 - Solid Strick. Look behind you, there he is. Could win.
Angel Cabrera, 51:1 - Long odds for major winner. Can air it out here. Possible.
Geoff Ogilvy, 51:1 - M.I.A. Odds on recent rep alone. Not Michael Campbell, but..... Won't win.
Henrik Stenson, 51:1 - Robot golf will only get you so far. Naked act only works once. Won't win.
Kenny Perry, 51:1 - Layout fits. Get the putter humming and........Perhaps.
Stewart Cink, 51:1 - Broke his maiden. Got the tools and all the other cliches. Could win.
Over 51:1 includes a horde of great players. Kim, Villegas, Furyk, Allenby, Fisher, Singh, Els, McIlroy, ad nauseum. As stated, Woods' dominance throws a giant monkey wrench into the works. Regardless, I'll pick away........
Average Golfer's Top Three, (In no particular order)
1. Woods
2. Mahan
3. Harrington
Dark Horses for the Adventurous
1. Rich Beem, Well, of course!
2. Mark Wilson
3. Kevin Streelman
There you go. Free picks. Gratis, on the house. Bet early and often and no bitching.
Til' next,
Wednesday, August 12, 2009
91st PGA Championship - Odds and Expert Picks.
Wednesday, September 24, 2008
THE TOUR Championship - Race For 2nd Place.
The men. No Adam Scott, Geoff Ogilvy, or Padraig Harrington. No European Ryder Cupper except Sergio. No Tiger obviously. He's ranked 70th in points and missed the field anyway. Worst of all, no Boo Weekly! Wait, no J.B. Holmes either. NFL here I come. On the bright side, we do get Mickelson, Els, Stricker, Furyk, and Anthony Kim. Weekly and Holmes are the only two American Cuppers that failed to qualify.
I'm jumping on the Camilo Villegas band wagon for this one. I think his is the only bandwagon I haven't been on this year. Motivation shouldn't be a problem. The total purse for THE TOUR Championship is 7 million dollars with 1.26 million going to the winner. Walking around money for Vijay. All told, 16.5 million will be paid to the top ten FedExCup finishers. For the record, another mind boggling number, the PGA Tour will pay out 278 million dollars in prize money this year spread over 48 official events. That's a good down payment to bail out Wall Street. It also makes this average golfer question my dad's idea of sticking a baseball bat in my hands when I was four.
Til' next,
Monday, August 11, 2008
Mickelson vs Harrington - The Case for #2.
Assuming the obvious, that Tiger Woods is firmly entrenched as the world's number one golfer, who is second best? Who deserves the title as most likely to challenge El Tigre when it matters, in a big tournament? The majors, the WGC events and the handful of other contests with packed fields and high drama.
After Sunday's PGA Championship victory and especially being his second consecutive major it would be easy to proclaim Padraig Harrington as number two in the world, a spot perennially occupied by Phil Mickelson. You'd be wrong. As of week 32, ending 08/10/2008 Phil has compiled 9.87 Official World Golf Ranking points compared to Padraig's 7.85. At the beginning of 2008, week 1, Phil held his customary #2 position with 8.555 points versus Padraig's 5.472, which at the time was good enough for 6th place in the world standings. So, despite his two major victories Harrington has only climbed to #3. Of course rankings aren't based on major performance alone, or the current year by itself. Keep in mind though that 3 of the last 6 major trophies are in Padraig's living room.
Digging a little deeper we'll see that this year Harrington has played in 12 events with 2 wins, (both majors), 1 3rd place, 6 top tens, and 9 top 25s. Mickelson has played in 17 events with 2 wins, 1 2nd, 6 top tens, and 16 top 25s. Mickelson has amassed 18,241 Fedex Cup points and Harrington 15,555. The Fedex Cup point differential is due to the additional 5 events for Phil. For 2007 and 2008 Phil has 5 victories to Padraig's 3. The question is would you trade 3 major wins for 5 regular tour wins? I know what my answer would be. On the heels of his PGA Championship win Harrington leads the European Tour Order of Merit standings. Phil obviously isn't on the radar in Europe.
I would submit to you that the #2 player in the world is Harrington. I believe the rankings are too weighted toward past performance and are without enough emphasis on major tournaments and quality fields. 3 of the last 6 majors over two years is good enough for me. How about you?
Til' next,
Sunday, August 10, 2008
90th PGA Championship, Harrington.
Crucial late round putting gave Padraig Harrington his second major trophy in as many starts. His victory in the 90th PGA Championship placed him halfway to the coveted "Paddy Slam". Harrington's second consecutive 66 gave him a two shot victory over a game Sergio Garcia and early 4th round leader Ben Curtis. Harrington became the 1st European winner of the PGA since Tommy Armour in 1930. Camilo Villegas finished strong and tied for 4th with a faltering Henrik Stenson. Steve Flesch's 69 gave him solo 6th. Phil Mickelson wilted to a tie for 7th with Andres Romero. Only 3 players finished under par at the notoriously tough Oakland Hills. Harrington at -3 and Garcia and Curtis at -1.
It was a three way battle most of the day in cool and blustery conditions. Garcia had the lead at the turn with Curtis and Harrington in close pursuit. With Garcia's water logged bogey on the 16th hole, Harrington nailed his birdie putt to start a streak of three straight pressure putts that ultimately sealed it for him. A birdie on the par three 17th gave him the lead when Garcia missed from about 4 feet. A cool, calm 15 footer on 18 cemented his win. Curtis hung around on the back nine , but never found the crucial birdie needed to share the lead. Strangely Harrington, in the view from the TV camera, appeared not to blink , even once, on the back nine. That steely determination is precisely what been lacking from competitors in the Tiger era. Maybe a challenge has been raised for next April in Augusta. Padraig will enter that tournament with a two major winning streak. Stay tuned.
Congratulations on hoisting the Wanamaker Trophy Padraig. He's now won 3 of the last 6 majors. I'll go out on a limb and predict the pints will be flowing in Dublin tonight.
Til' next,
Saturday, August 9, 2008
Romero, Villegas Shoot Back Into 90th PGA Championship Picture.
Andres Romero's sterling, early 65 and Camilo Villegas' -4 through 14 holes rocketed them both back onto the 90th PGA Championship leader board. Round 3 was KO'd by persistent rain and the PGA will attempt to finish rounds three and four tomorrow. The final three pairings never hit a shot. Hence, the only notable change on the leader board was the appearance of Romero and Villegas. Better scoring conditions and more favorable pin placements were leading to improved rounds based on the partial sample of Saturday players. Romero must feel fairly good sitting in the clubhouse, having completed his round, at +2. He has just 18 more to play on a course that apparently won't succumb to an under par winner.
The plan is for play to begin at 7:15 AM tomorrow. Mother Nature willing, that would provide enough time for the 4th round to be completed in the afternoon. The leaders will be playing 36 holes. Not ideal, but I'm sure CBS prefers it to a Monday finish. Today's rain may have softened the course enough to see movement across the field. I wouldn't be surprised to see at least one other 65 in what would be the 3rd round.
Scheduled Air Times for Sunday: 11:00 AM-2:00 PM, TNT, 2:00 PM-7:00 PM, CBS.
Weather Report for Sunday, Bloomfield Hills, MI.....
Some clouds with the chance of a couple showers developing in the afternoon. High 74F. Winds NW at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 30%.
Til' next,
Friday, August 8, 2008
The Monster Piles Up Victims Like Cordwood at 90th PGA Championship.
Super power hitter J.B. Holmes stood alone as the only player under par after two rounds of the 90th PGA Championship. His mind boggling bomb strategy paid off today because, by his own admission, he was hitting his driver straight. Some of his tee balls were reportedly in the 400 yard range. His 68 today gave him a 139 total and a one stroke advantage over over the trio of Charlie Wi, Ben Curtis, and Justin Rose. Curtis and Rose turned in 67s, good enough for rounds of the day. David Toms and Henrik Stenson were tied at 141, two strokes back. Toms proved that you don't have to be a beast off tee to contend here. Seven players were at 142 including Sergio, Aaron Baddely, and Jeev Milkha Singh. The other Singh and one of Average Golfer's sleeper picks. Did I mention the other Singh was one of my sleeper picks? Phil Mickelson was one more stroke back at 143, tied with a host of players. It's a tight leaderboard with 24 players within 5 shots of the lead.
Sent Packing.....
At press time, with a few players still on the course, the projected cut was a startling +8. This left a veritable all star team with a short weekend. Notable victims include Daly, Couples, Zach Johnson, Scott, O'Hern, Clarke, Choi, Cink, Jimenez, Vijay Singh, Ames, Campbell, Love III, Immelman, Kaymer, Verplank, Westwood, Byrd, Imada, Woody, Montgomerie, and Mahan. Wow, that's a lot of quality carnage. I hope they can field a foursome for tomorrow! Saturday, moving day. Should be at least interesting.
Til' next,
*Average Golfer Comment of the Day belongs to Rees Jones, course designer, whose fingerprints are all over the current Oakland Hills setup. Responding to complaints about the difficulty of the course by many players, Jones said, "The winner never complains."
Thursday, August 7, 2008
The Monster Takes Prisoners in 1st Round of 90th PGA Championship.
Red numbers were as precious Pro V1s in a hacker's league at the 90th PGA Championship. Oakland Hills lived up to it's name and left a large share of the field mumbling to themselves. A 90 minute rain delay prevented completion of the 1st round, so results are partial.
Robert Karlsson, only golfer to finish in the top 10 at the first three majors, shared the lead with Andrews Romero, (on the 14th hole when play stopped), and one of Average Golfer's sleeper picks, Jeev Milkha Singh. They were all at -2, 68. Singh's doctors advised him to take a month off from golf to heal an injured ankle. In keeping with Woods' knee and Harrington's wrist injuries, it's only fitting he decided to play. It probably guarantees his win. Ken Duke, Sergio Garcia, Billy Mayfair, Sean O'Hair, and J.B. Holmes, (16th hole), were locked at -1, 69. Ten players were at even par.
Perhaps more telling than the leaderboard were the players that most likely shot themselves out of the championship on the 1st day. They need to go low on day #2 and the course is showing no signs of allowing any low scores. They would include the Ryder Cup dissenter, Hunter Mahan, +11, Ryuji Imada, +10, Woody Austin, +9, Jerry Kelly, +9, recent winner Chez Reavie, +8, KJ Choi, +8, Adam Scott, +7, Lee Westwood, +7, Davis Love III, +7. The course claimed victims on the 1st day and there's no reason to believe that will change any time soon. Many players described the course as more like a US Open setup than the US Open. Despite the late rain, course officials were watering at least three greens during play, an ominous sign on day #1. Let's hope they find a healthy balance. I don't mind seeing the world's best severely tested, I just don't want to see luck, or bad luck, play a part in determining the winner. They may be precipitously close to that fine line.
Average Golfer was more than a little disappointed to read comments attributed to his pick to win, Lee Westwood, regarding the course setup. Here's an excerpt from his post-round interview after his 77....
“The course is 7,500 yards long, the greens are firm and the pins are tucked away,” “They are sucking the fun out of the major championships when you set it up like that.
“I sound as if I’m moaning—which I am—but it’s a great shame,” he said. “It’s a fantastic golf course. They are great greens and they are playable. But there is no need to play it as it is.”
Boy, since he's my pick I surely hope he has a nice dinner and a good night's sleep so he can wake up tomorrow with a tad better attitude.
Til' next,
* Late note......Kenny Perry withdrew after his 1st round 78 with an eye injury.
Tuesday, August 5, 2008
90th PGA Championship - Odds and Insight.
Boy I sure wish some golfer would jump out and proclaim themselves as the clear cut favorite for the 90th PGA Championship. It's like trying to pick the best dog from a litter of 156. You almost have the feeling that a club pro could break through. Almost. Will Phil come apart again like a $30.00 suit? Will Sergio choose the wrong putter from his extensive collection? Will Vijay continue to miss the cup from inside five feet? Will Kenny Perry manage to stay white hot? Average Golfer breaks down their chances and predicts a winner. Here's the top odds favorites from Ladbrokes' oddsmakers.......
Mickelson, 10/1 ..... Odds based on talent, not shot selection or execution under pressure. Can win, won't win. Still shaken from WGC.
Harrington, 20/1 ..... Has major experience obviously. Can close the deal. Short game helps here. Can win.
Garcia, 20/1 ..... Same old story. You know the tune. If he builds a lead by Saturday, could win.
Singh, 20/1 ..... Gee, I wonder what he's been practicing in his hotel room. Although, he made the putt that mattered last week. Could win.
A. Kim, 25/1 ..... Boy, hard to figure. Game's not in question, his youth is. Could win, tough to pick him though.
Els, 25/1 ..... Should win based on his talent vs theirs. Long running story with Ernie. Have to wait and see. Too risky to pick.
Furyk, 25/1 ..... Ideal set up for the straight, but long enough, hitter. Can win, may pick him.
Westwood, 25/1 ..... Hottest player not to win in the last month. Hard to not pick him. Obviously capable.
Goosen, 25/1 ..... Nasty greens and areas surrounding greens are his specialty. Can win with a hot putter, which is true of a lot of the field.
Scott, 33/1 ..... Get the feeling he's happy with top 10s. May be wrong, but lacks the killer instinct to finish guys off. Can win, won't win.
Ogilvy, 40/1 ..... Mediocre lately for a US Open winner. Regardless though, have to consider him a threat every time he tees it up. Can win.
Mahan, 40/1 ..... Dissed the Ryder Cup without ever having played in it. Bad Karma. Won't win.
Stenson, 40/1 ..... RoboGolfer. Has the tools, seemingly lacks the passion. Could win, probably won't.
KJ Choi, 40/1 ..... Hot earlier in the year. Can't question his tools. Tough guy to figure out. Capable of winning. No call here. Wouldn't be surprised to see him 1st or 61st.
Perry, 40/1 ..... Should be the fan's choice. Achieved his goal, but I'm sure he'd love to win a major to shut up the naysayers. Could win.
Cink, 40,1 ..... Another enigma. Wicked hot six weeks ago. Now, who the &#$* knows? Could win I reckon, long and straight enough. Best with the wacky putter.
Sleeper Picks....
A little tough to call these "sleepers", but for lack of a better name..... Ames, Appleby, Chad Campbell, Cejka, Tim Clark, Leonard, O'Hair, and Jeev Milkha Singh.
Without further ado, the winner of the 2008 PGA Championship is.....
1st - Lee Westwood, He's due, overdue.
2nd - Retief Goosen
3rd - Robert Allenby
There you have it again. Now all you have to do is watch!
Til' next,
*Average Golfer noteworthy pick. We picked Ya-Ni Tseng to win last week's Women's British Open. She finished 2nd. We're due.
