2009 British Open Odds and Picks

I prefer to call this event "The Open Championship", as it rightly is dubbed, but I've discovered that more people perform a web search for the British Open. So I'm a slave to web traffic, sue me.

This year's rendering of the classic event is to be held at Turnberry, not the most frequent venue in the rota, but one that's produced some notable winners, namely Watson, Norman, and Price. Playing at just over 7,200 yards to a par 70, the course has undergone some changes since last held here in 1994. Most evident are some added bunkers and green enhancement will serve to increase the challenge that is links golf, a unique challenge, especially when Mother Nature rears her head, a distinct possibility in these parts of the world. Weather, (read rain), and wind can change the character of this contest and turn it into an exercise in survival rather than a comparison of perfect golf shots. Turnberry is one of the few where errant shots can land in the sea. Pebblesque you might say.

That all said, let's boil down the field and pick some possible winners. I'll handicap the top 17 with current odds supplied by Ladbrokes, noted betting house, with more than a vested interest in this event, the quintessential European contest. Ready? Let's get going......

Tiger Woods, 3:1 - What can you say? World's best, smallest odds. Only negative, never played here. Practice rounds this week will have to suffice. Game transitions to links rather well. Should win.

Sergio Garcia, 21:1 - Don't understand the 2nd least odds. Not exactly peaking. Could win I suppose. Probably won't.

Ian Poulter, 26:1 - Like him better than Garcia. That makes him a could win without the "I suppose."

Lee Westwood, 26:1 - Overdue for a major. Bit of a home field advantage with no name Scots in the mix. Might win.

Padraig Harrington, 26:1 - Going for 3rd consecutive British. Too bad he's slumped of late. Great time to break out. Won't however.

Rory McIlroy, 26:1 - Extreme talent. If in contention will have to deal with pressure cooker. Will win plenty, just not this one.

Anthony Kim, 34:1 - Not sure he can adjust his ball flight downward in expected wind. Better on target courses. Won't win.

Hunter Mahan, 34:1 - Last round was a 62. Coming into his own. May very well win.

Henrik Stenson, 34:1 - I figure him as a contender whenever/wherever he tees it. Needs to overcome major hump. Split on Henrik, not sure.

Jim Furyk, 34:1 - Can't ever overlook him. Don't think he can, but wouldn't surprise.

Martin Kaymer, 34:1 - Coming off a win last week. Brilliant at times. It's possible.

Paul Casey, 34:1 - Should be one of the favorites in my opinion. Could win.

Ernie Els, 41:1 - Maybe the Ernie of years ago. Not this Ernie. Won't win.

Geoff Ogilvy, 41:1 - Rather pedestrian year so far for Geoff. Still, if you can win one major....... Could win.

Ross Fisher, 41:1 - Nice player. As close to a home game as he'll get. Can't win, but wish he could.

Retief Goosen, 41:1 - Surprised to see him this far down the list. Game's coming around. Major wins in his resume. Could win.

Steve Stricker, 41:1 - Strick just won. Coming in hot, but a couple days late to see the course. Possible, but doubt it.

2009 Open Championship Full Field.


Average Golfer makes his selections.........

Sentimental Picks

1. David Duval
2. John Daly
3. Paul Goydos

Dark Horse Picks

1. Graeme McDowell
2. Angel Cabrera
3. Thongchai Jaidee

*** Winning Picks, Top Three ***

1. Tiger Woods
2. Lee Westwood
3. Hunter Mahan


There you have 'em. As usual, free, gratis. Consider them a part of my repaying a debt to society.

Bet early and often.



Til' next,


*Average Golfer aside.......Make a bundle! Nick Faldo goes off at 2001:1

Weather K.O.s 1/2 of Open Championship Field. Rocco Tied for Lead, Shark in the Hunt.

Dastardly weather made mince meat of the early groups at the 137th Open Championship. Gale wind, torrential rain, and temps in the 50s turned a major tournament into a survival contest. "Can't wait to go home" said Pat Perez, summing up many of the first players to go off sentiments. Perez shot 82. he wasn't alone. A toll of the carnage featured Phil Mickelson, 79, J.B. Holmes, 79, and this quartet at 80, Vijay Singh, Ernie Els, John Daly, Boo Weekly. Barring a repeat of today that saw the weather surrender to the afternoon groups, these guys are toast. I know weather is part of the game, but where do "conditions" reach the level of unplayable. The only certainty there is lightning and I get the impression that it's too cold there for lightning. It's a horrible break to see some world class golfers virtually eliminated from a major on the first day. It's close to holding a major with 1/2 the field on different courses. Sandy Lyle withdrew after 10 holes and +11. Peter Dawson, chief executive of the R&A, wasn't thrilled. "Disappointing," he said. "I have to say pro golfers should complete the round. That's what they're paid to do."

On the happy side of the draw there were surprises in bunches. Human conditions saw Rocco Mediate share the lead at -1, despite getting treatment at the turn for his chronically bad back. He shared it with Graeme McDowell and Robert Allenby. Now I know why Allenby wears those goggles. For sideways rain. Greg Norman shared 2nd at even par with Adam Scott and Bart Bryant. Looks like being newly married suits the Shark and his game. Never hurts to able to hit the ball low. There's an eight way tie at +1 led by Retief Goosen, Mike Weir, and Jim Furyk. Defending champ Padraig Harrington survived his wrist to post a respectable +4, 74, tied with Tom Watson. Could Watson sneak up and add to his Claret Jug collection? Stay tuned, watch the survivors and the victims of Mother Nature's impregnable powers.

Royal Birkdale Weather Forecast....

Friday, Rain at times, Wind 25-35 MPH.

Saturday, Blustery showers, heavy at times. Gusts to 35 MPH, perhaps 45 MPH during heavy showers. Strong wind hazard.


Til' next,

137th Open Championship Preview

The granddaddy of them all. Scene of Tom Watson's last Open Championship in 1983,Mark O'Meara's in 1998 when last played here, Royal Birkdale again requests the honor of your presence to crown the year's champion golfer.

What to expect...

Expect rough, lots of rich green rough. When the spring is wet in the British Isles, the rough is long and green. This spring was wet.

Expect the unexpected if handicapping this tournament. With Tiger Woods on the sidelines there's no clear favorite. That will make for some ripe golf viewing. Sergio's installed as the early favorite at 10/1. Keep in mind that is just a number to even out the money bet across the field. He's obviously a fan favorite. Average Golfer says beware of betting on a man to win a major that hasn't won a major. Try this link for Ladbrokes' current odds on the field. We'll handicap the field ourselves tomorrow and make accurate predictions.

Expect an exciting Sunday. This field is too close in talent to have it any other way. There's about a third of the field that I've never heard of before. I foresee a real horse race finish and some tangible excitement. Can't wait.

The Course...

Since last held here in 1998 Royal Birkdale has been grabbed by both ends and forcefully pulled. No. 17 is 30 yards longer with a devilsh new green. The intended 10.5 on the Stimpmeter may be too fast for this roller coaster.

Nos. 7, and 12, both par threes, are the only holes left untouched since O'Meara's win. Everything else is longer, with the total added yardage at 155 yards. Playing lines have been altered on many holes however, as well as tightening of the bunkers and additional mounds to confound the world's best.

The great determiner, British weather, has been left untouched. Combine some wind with 10 yard wide fairways and ball hunting may be a popular sport. Gradual tree removal over the years has insured the wind will play a part.

How to watch...

If you're not on a plane by tomorrow, settle for TV coverage.

Thu., 7/17 7:00AM-2:30PM, TNT
Fri., 7/18 7:00AM-2:30PM TNT
Sat., 7/19 7:00AM- 9:00AM TNT
Sat., 7/19 9:00AM-2:30PM ABC
Sun., 7/20 6:00AM-8:00AM TNT
Sun., 7/20 8:00AM-1:30PM ABC

Tomorrow from Average Golfer...

Predictions including the winner of the 137th Open Championship.

Til, next,


*Open Trivia...No Brit, European, or South African golfer has won the Open at Royal Birkdale. Americans and Australians reserve that role to this point.

*Publisher's note. The link given for Royal Birkdale is the course guide from the R&A website. The club site was unavailable at press time, probably overloaded due to too many requests.