Monday, April 2, 2012

2012 Masters - Odds and Expert Picks

Gee, are we back already? Seems like just yesterday when I screwed up picking the winner of a major golf tournament. Golf is tough to pick, that's my excuse. Regardless, with the help of Ladbrokes, the venerable British betting house, we'll attempt to decipher the undecipherable, the 2012 Masters Toonamint. So, blow the cobwebs out of your wallet and follow Average Golfer into tall cotton...

Who Can't Win

This is the easy part. The Masters is really a glorified club event with some world class players and some past champions, who can play for almost life, some amateurs, and some winners of a local 9 hole muni's club championship. That's why I've always said that the Masters is fantastic spectacle, but not much of a Toonamint when you consider strength of field. At any rate Ben Crenshaw, 5000/1, can't win. Nor can the following 2000/1 takers of space... Woosnam, Lyle, Randal Lewis, (sorry Mr. and Mrs. Lewis), and Craig Stadler. At 1500/1 Corbin Mills has a snowball's chance. Mark O'Meara, Kelly Kraft, (Double K in golf circles), and Bryden MacPherson have no shot at 1000/1. At least Gary Player hung up the spikes so I can't continue to torture him for robbing the spot of a deserving player.

Who Should Win

Winning at ANGC, (That's Augusta National Golf Club for insiders), is all about course familiarity and experience. Hence, Fuzzy Zoeller is the only rookie winner since electricity. In truth, ANGC is about flowers, bridges, ponds dyed blue, and rich white dudes. That said, Eldrick, (his buddies call him Tiger), Woods is going off at 9/2. Woods dilemna will be the flat stick. He makes putts, he wins, case closed. He's striking the ball like the Eldrick of old and knows the place like he knows Nike headquarters. Nipping at his heels would be Rory McIlroy, 6/1. Young Rory's moment of truth may well be the ghosts of Masters' past, namely last year. His US Open win would suggest he's conquered his demons, but until he hits his 10th hole tee shot on Sunday, we won't know. 3rd in the favorite's triumverate would be Mr. Phil Mickelson at 12/1. Course knowledge, check. Past winner(s), check. Loves the place, check. Phil's a crap shoot. If he's on he probably wins. If he's not, he don't.

Who Wins If The Favorites Collapse?

Best of the rest? Here's where there's money to be made. Nobody bought a yacht at 9/2. Luke Donald, 16/1. Sure he could, but Augusta's a tad long for the Brit. Lee Westwood, 20/1. Possible. Good odds on a great player. Hunter Mahan, 25/1. Nice pick on the hottest player on Tour. Adam Scott, 33/1. Gee, I hope not. I liked Scott til' he started putting with a divining rod. Keegan Bradley, 33/1. Nice player. Probably doesn't have the savvy this time. Take him in 2015. Justin Rose, 33/1. Great pick at these odds. Peaking. Jason Day, 40/1. Limited field means Jason may finish toDay. Won't win. Matt Kuchar, 40/1. Seems like too nice a guy to win down the stretch here. Like him in the John Deere Classic though! Charl Schwartzel, 40/1. Not much love for the defending champ. I'd take him in a sec at these odds.

There's plenty of picks left at 50/1+ To name a few.... Watney, D. Johnson, Garcia, Bubba Watson, (no relation to Tom), Stricker, Kaymer, McDowell, Choi, Haas, Snedeker, ad nauseum.

Average Golfer's Masters Picks

1. Eldrick "Tiger" Woods
2. Justin Rose
3. Hunter Mahan

Long Shot - Angel Cabrera

Sentimental Pick - Tom Watson

There you have em'. Guaranteed money makers.

Swing hard, they make em' while you sleep.