Halfway at 2010 US Open - McDowell Leads, Mickelson Closes In, Woods Mediocre

Genius that I am, I removed Phil Mickelson from my fantasy team roster for day #2 of the 2010 US Open. You see Phil is the definition of a streaky player. The key is to time his streaks. If anyone should have realized that Phil would go low after a lackluster 75 in round #1 it should have been me, astute golf fan. His 66 today was the best round of the day by two full strokes and landed him in a knot for 2nd place at -1 overall. Irishman Graeme McDowell's 68 left him with the lead at -3. Joining Mickelson were Ryo Ishikawa, Dustin Johnson, and Ernie Els. Els' 68 was one of the better rounds today. Locked at even par after two rounds were Paul Casey, Alex Cejka, Brendon DeJonge, and Jerry Kelly. All said there were 14 golfers within 5 strokes of the leader. Full Field Scores After Two Rounds.

Notables after two rounds were Lee Westwood, +3. Tiger Woods, Padraig Harrington, Vijay Singh, David Toms, and Angel Cabrera at +4. The cut line was at a healthy +7. Those going home for weekend included Geoff Ogilvy, Miguel Angel Jimenez, Adam Scott, Ben Crane, Hunter Mahan, Rory McIlroy, Rocco Mediate, YE Yang, and sadly Erik Compton.

With Pebble not easily surrendering birdies, Saturday is pivotal. Moving day will prove worthy of it's tag as players jockey for position for Sunday's stretch run. The likes of Woods, 7 off the lead, need to take it low tomorrow. Something in the order of a 66 would do nicely. Nothing in Woods' game however has indicated he's capable of such a score. The Tiger of ten years ago, who won on this course in blow-out fashion, never would have complained about course conditions, a la bumpy greens, etc. This however is the new rudderless Tiger with complaints and excuses for his pedestrian efforts. In retrospect, perhaps he should have taken a year off to right his off course ship. Troubled minds and golf is a disaster recipe. 

Nothing indicates that Pebble will be getting easier in the next two days. Pars are like birdies, some bogeys are OK. Stay out of doubles and worse and you just might find yourself with a chance. The US Open purports to identify the best golfer. This year so far it's well on it's way to mission accomplished.







Til' next,

2010 US Open at Pebble Beach - Odds and Expert Picks

The 110th version of our National Golf Championship gets under way Thursday at historic Pebble Beach Golf Links. As per usual Average Golfer's here to handicap the top part of the field with an assist from Ladbrokes, the British betting house, providing current player odds. Keep in mind that odds are determined by the betting public's interest in a player and have no bearing on their actual chances of winning. In other terms, plunk down your money and cross your fingers.

Odds aside, there's a couple of sentimental favorites teeing off this week. Ageless Tom Watson, on special exemption, tees it up for perhaps his last US Open. Tom's legacy is carved in granite at Pebble thanks to his 1982 17th hole chip-in that sealed his Open win over Jack Nicklaus. The other remarkable story is the tale of Erik Compton, a two time heart transplant recipient, who survived the grueling 36 qualifier just to get here. 

With all formalities out of the way and without further ado, let's find a winner.......


Tiger Woods, 8/1 - Short odds due to his resume, especially here at Pebble. Will have to hit it straight off the tees. Don't see it with the state of his game. Won't win.

Phil Mickelson, 8/1 - Odds make more sense here. 5 runner-ups at Pebble, 3 wins. Major mojo. Should win.

Lee Westwood, 12/1 - Coming in off a victory. Perhaps should be the favorite. Has all the tools with new found confidence. Could certainly win.

Padraig Harrington, 25/1 - Has pedigree and talent required. Constant fiddling with his game may hurt. Still, could win.

Rory McIlroy, 25/1 - Maturity beyond his 21 years. Knows how to win. Will be awesome tee to green. Putter will be the decider. Could win.

Dustin Johnson, 25/1 - US version of McIlroy. Defended Pebble Pro-Am here this year. Entirely different course for the Open, but Johnson has the all-around game. Putter will tell. Could win.

Ernie Els, 33/1 - The Big Enigma. Having a solid year for a change. If he's straight off the tees will have a short iron in his hands a lot. It's possible, but doubt it. Can play down to the occasion.

Jim Furyk, 33/1 - Laser-like irons will help with small greens. No need to strong arm this course. As goes the putter, goes Furyk. Possible.

Luke Donald, 33/1 - Great game for this course. See Furyk regarding iron play. Could win this thing.

Nick Watney, 40/1 - In the D. Johnson mold. Sort of a local boy. Will have tons of short irons. Could win, but doubtful.

Steve Stricker, 40/1 - Would have been a pick at the beginning of the season. Game isn't as sharp as usual. A major is no time to figure things out. Won't win.

Camilo Villegas, 50/1 - Not afraid to go low. Risk/reward choices make for some big numbers however. Female gallery fave. Won't win here though.

Retief Goosen, 50/1 - Should be in any major conversation. Short game and putting ideal for this tourney. Not exactly peaking, but should at least contend.

Geoff Ogilvy, 50/1 - Uncharacteristically blase season thus far.  Obviously knows how to win an Open. May surprise, but I don't think so.

Paul Casey, 50/1 - Long, fairly straight. Prone to putting lapses. At 50/1 I like him. Possible.

Adam Scott, 50/1 - Appears to be rounding back into Scott of old form. Rather large question mark left though. I don't see him contending.

Bo Van Pelt, 50/1 - Van who? Not Lucy from Peanuts brother. Lots of top tens this year put him here. Nice year so far. Should wilt under the major microscope.


Best of the Rest  

Hunter Mahan, KJ Choi, Tim Clark, Matt Kuchar, Zach Johnson, and Stewart Cink all go off at 66/1. Of the bunch I see value in Mahan and Kuchar. And.... never, ever underestimate Tim Clark in a major. All he does is get the ball in the hole. Ian Poulter at 80/1 seems a bit out of whack as does Ben Crane with the same odds. Graeme McDowell at  80/1 odds is a possible dark horse. Who would have predicted Sergio going off at 100/1? Young Ryo Ishikawa pays at 200/1 if you're so inclined. That's a commentary on the importance of shooting 58 on a 6,500 yard course in Japan I suppose. With this strong of a field there's tons of potential dark horses. The trick is identifying them. Let's take our best shot..........


Average Golfer's 2010 US Open Picks

1. Mickelson,  (Yeah, I know. easy to go with chalk)
2. Dustin Johnson 
3. Tim Clark,  (Could easily be considered a dark horse)

Dark Horse Picks

Ty Tryon at 1000/1  (Now that's what I call a dark horse)
Lucas Glover and Henrik Stenson  (The defender and great player at 125/1, worth a shot)


As always, bet early and often.







Til' next,

2010 US Open - Prelude

It's 2010 National Championship eve as the US Open returns to Pebble Beach after a 10 year hiatus. The last version saw Tiger Woods win by a record 15 strokes while decimating the field. It's not exactly the same Woods you'll see this week. Traditionally unpredictable Monterrey Peninsula weather is expected to be rather mundane with abundant sunshine and low winds. Still, Pebble can tax golfers without prodigious length. Postage stamp greens, moved fairways, and umpteen more possible tee placements than in 2000 will allow the old girl to escape the embarrassment of a -20 winning score.

We'll preview the combatants and their chances in tomorrow's post regarding odds and picks. Geoff Shackelford's Twitter feed sheds some light on the $6.00 hot dogs and bargain basement $34.00 golf caps here. Definitely worth a look. As per usual we'll examine the betting scene via Ladbrokes and try to decipher the pretenders from the contenders. Will it be an old Pebble ace like Mickelson or Furyk or a young budding star like McIlroy or Rocco Mediate who just gained last minute inclusion as the 1st alternate? Waiting's half the fun.

Stick with Average Golfer for week long coverage and irreverent commentary.  With the strength of field and venues the US version of an Open Championship is generally considered the truest test to identify the year's best golfer. St. Andrew's being the Open Championship site this year may mitigate that claim somewhat, but I think Pebble Beach compares favorably in every category except age. Watch and catch a little piece of history.





Til' next,

Rose Finally Blossoms at Memorial

It's tough to feel too badly for a guy who has won 10.6 million dollars, albeit without a PGA Tour win. Still, it was nice to see a nice guy, Justin Rose, punch his first stateside winner's ticket in the 2010 Memorial. His 66 today was the round of the day by two strokes and blew him past 3rd round leader Rickie Fowler who's 73 left him at -15, three off Rose's pace. The battle of the Rickys(ies) was a dead heat with Ricky Barnes carding the same 73 as Fowler. That gave him a tie for 3rd at -12 with Bo Van Pelt, who shot 69. Trailing at -11 was the trio of Phil Mickelson, Tim Petrovic, 74, and Ryan Moore with a nice final round 68. Final Full Field Scores.

Rose began his charge by birdieing  4 of 5 holes on the front nine to catch Fowler. Fowler contributed to Rose's rise by bogeying 10 and doubling 12. Barnes paid his homage as well with a double on 12 and a bogey on 13. After that it was basically fairways and greens for Rose who answered the pressure and came home with a comfortable cushion. Rose seems on the brink of a stretch of winning golf with a revamped swing and posture. His swing appears effortless with few moving parts. He's obviously improved his conditioning and has the elements to compete on the biggest stages. For a guy that's just 29 it seems he's been around for much longer, having caught our attention in the Open Championship as a precocious 17 year old. He's certainly paid his dues since, having risen from the depths of despair, at one point missing 21 consecutive cuts at the start of his pro career. You have to learn how to win at this level and pay your dues in failed attempts. Rose got his just reward today and Fowler contributed to his experience bank. That's generally how it works.

Most of the top players used The Memorial as their US Open at Pebble Beach tune-up. Expect next week's St. Jude Classic to be a glorified Nationwide Tour event.  A number a today's participants will turn around and have to play tomorrow in a 36 hole US Open qualifier. Hard to feel too bad for them however as I spend my 11 hour day running a big box retail store. Hey, where I went to school there was no golf team.







Til' next,

Barnes Burner at The Memorial

10 under 62. Besting the world #1 playing in your group by 7. Vaporizing a ten stroke lead by the 2nd round leader. Yes, it was very good to be Ricky Barnes today. His round was proof positive of why Saturday on tour is called moving day. Ricky and Rickie Fowler will tee it up in the final group tomorrow for bragging rights and a win at one of the more important non-majors, Jack's Memorial. Could we please vote on one common spelling for Ricky(ie)? Barnes at -13 will spot young Fowler at -16, three strokes when the first ball is airborne. It will be fun to see who blinks first. Ah, youth.

Barnes isn't alone in chasing Fowler. Tim Petrovic is tied with him at -13. Justin Rose stands at -12 and Brendon DeJonge's stellar 65 left him 5 back at -11. Six players are barely within sniffing distance at -9, barring a Barnes-like score tomorrow. Phil Mickelson at -8 and Woods at -6 are playing for walking around money. Full Field 3rd Round Scores.

If the question was who was going to lead the PGA charge in the wake of the post-Woods scandal, the answer may lie in tomorrow's final group. Youthful, seemingly fearless, do either of them have the stuff to finish the deal, or will they wilt in the spotlight? That's why we watch. Gee, this golf thing could get interesting again.

*Average Golfer interesting little sidebar........ On the official website of the Memorial Tournament fans are referred to as patrons. That could catch on.








Til' next,

Memorial Needs to Jump Start Boring PGA Tour

This past week's Colonial Golf Tournament did little to awaken the masses and click their remotes. Zach Johnson seems to be a super guy, but lacks the cachet of a Phil or Tiger, especially when left to his own devices. Johnson beating Mickelson or Woods or winning the Masters, as he did, are all big stories. Woods and other top ranked players, including nearly all Europeans, skipping Hogan's event, combined with Phil missing the cut, meant this tourney was losing to burgers and beer on Memorial Day weekend. Still, Johnson won the honor of the plaid jacket to go with his green one. Which reminds me of one of my favorite golf tales. I'll paraphrase. When Peter Jacobsen won the 1984 Colonial in a playoff over Payne Stewart it was said that he was dutifully donning the plaid coat while gathered in a small group and said, "How long do I have to wear this %&*#@$& jacket?" No other than Ben Hogan, standing close behind him, but not noticed, replied to Jacobsen, "Until I say you can take it off son."

 This weeks Memorial Tournament will be a Nicklaus lovefest with the likes of Woods, Mickelson, Els, Scott, and McIlroy teeing it up. Woods defends. Is Woods game still a mess? Does Phil miss consecutive cuts? Can McIlroy validate his "arrival"? Good questions all. A pretty good US Open tune-up as well. This launches the meat of the pro golf season running through the Open Championship and culminating with the PGA Championship.Time to separate the pretenders from the contenders in the 2010 season. If at that point you still haven't made a decision you can have the FedUp Cup for dessert. Memorial field.

For this Average Golfer this week represents the first meaningful pro golf since THE PLAYERS Championship. Be there or risk falling behind.






Til' next,

2010 PLAYERS Championship - Odds and Expert Picks

Dubbing itself the "fifth major", the 2010 PLAYERS Championship gets underway on Thursday from the TPC Sawgrass in Ponte Vedra Beach, FL. I'm not sure that you can even have a 5th major, much less one always played on a Pete Dye design that the word quirky only begins to describe. Regardless, it's always one of, if not the strongest field of the year, a field that makes the Masters look like a junior event.

As per usual here at Average Golfer, we'll handicap the upper portion of the field with a nod to Ladbrokes, our legal betting resource. Keep in mind that as of press time Steve Stricker and Anthony Kim were WDs. Unfortunate with them both being in the upper echelon. Still, the game goes on........


Tiger Woods, 6:1 - Ah, the power of the betting public to move the odds. Won't win. Top 10 would be considered good for the recovery effort.

Phil Mickelson, 8:1 - Should win on the heels of Masters win and last week's 2nd. He wins and Woods finishes worse than 5th and Phil's the new world #1.

Jim Furyk, 20:1 - Should have won here by now. It's his backyard for cryin' out loud! Could win.

Ernie Els, 20:1 - Having a great year. Lots of top tens and two wins. Could win.

Rory McIlroy, 20:1 - Fashionable pick. Had his 21st birthday today. Kids get over hangovers quickly. Could win, won't.

Lee Westwood, 25:1 - Needs to sneak one in eventually, right? Possible if he's figured out how to close an important tournament.

Padraig Harrington, 25:1 - If he's finally done fiddling with his game we may see the old Paddy. Could win.

Ian Poulter, 25:1 - One of my Masters picks. Just can't seem to avoid the odd bad round when it counts. Probably won't win.

Paul Casey, 33:1 - Of the Brits I prefer Donald on this course. Won't win.

Camilo Villegas, 40:1 - If they awarded style points..... Since they don't, won't win. Watch though, probably will be 2nd round leader.

Stenson, Mahan, Fowler, Watney, Cabrera, Choi, Donald, Ames, all at 50:1. Of the group I like Watney, Fowler, and Donald. Henrik Stenson defends. Those sure are long odds on a defending champion. May be worth a throw. Full field and tee times.

Don't blame me if you don't win. It's not like I held you down and forced money out of your hand. If you aren't a bettor, don't blame me either when these picks of pure genius come through.


Average Golfer's Picks

1. Mickelson
2. Donald
3. Harrington

Dark Horse - Charl Schwartzel

Sentimental Pick - Couples

There you have 'em. Bet early and often!

* 5/5/10 - Sadly Fred Couples withdrew today. Must be the back.





Til' next,