Halfway at 2010 US Open - McDowell Leads, Mickelson Closes In, Woods Mediocre

Genius that I am, I removed Phil Mickelson from my fantasy team roster for day #2 of the 2010 US Open. You see Phil is the definition of a streaky player. The key is to time his streaks. If anyone should have realized that Phil would go low after a lackluster 75 in round #1 it should have been me, astute golf fan. His 66 today was the best round of the day by two full strokes and landed him in a knot for 2nd place at -1 overall. Irishman Graeme McDowell's 68 left him with the lead at -3. Joining Mickelson were Ryo Ishikawa, Dustin Johnson, and Ernie Els. Els' 68 was one of the better rounds today. Locked at even par after two rounds were Paul Casey, Alex Cejka, Brendon DeJonge, and Jerry Kelly. All said there were 14 golfers within 5 strokes of the leader. Full Field Scores After Two Rounds.

Notables after two rounds were Lee Westwood, +3. Tiger Woods, Padraig Harrington, Vijay Singh, David Toms, and Angel Cabrera at +4. The cut line was at a healthy +7. Those going home for weekend included Geoff Ogilvy, Miguel Angel Jimenez, Adam Scott, Ben Crane, Hunter Mahan, Rory McIlroy, Rocco Mediate, YE Yang, and sadly Erik Compton.

With Pebble not easily surrendering birdies, Saturday is pivotal. Moving day will prove worthy of it's tag as players jockey for position for Sunday's stretch run. The likes of Woods, 7 off the lead, need to take it low tomorrow. Something in the order of a 66 would do nicely. Nothing in Woods' game however has indicated he's capable of such a score. The Tiger of ten years ago, who won on this course in blow-out fashion, never would have complained about course conditions, a la bumpy greens, etc. This however is the new rudderless Tiger with complaints and excuses for his pedestrian efforts. In retrospect, perhaps he should have taken a year off to right his off course ship. Troubled minds and golf is a disaster recipe. 

Nothing indicates that Pebble will be getting easier in the next two days. Pars are like birdies, some bogeys are OK. Stay out of doubles and worse and you just might find yourself with a chance. The US Open purports to identify the best golfer. This year so far it's well on it's way to mission accomplished.







Til' next,

2010 US Open at Pebble Beach - Odds and Expert Picks

The 110th version of our National Golf Championship gets under way Thursday at historic Pebble Beach Golf Links. As per usual Average Golfer's here to handicap the top part of the field with an assist from Ladbrokes, the British betting house, providing current player odds. Keep in mind that odds are determined by the betting public's interest in a player and have no bearing on their actual chances of winning. In other terms, plunk down your money and cross your fingers.

Odds aside, there's a couple of sentimental favorites teeing off this week. Ageless Tom Watson, on special exemption, tees it up for perhaps his last US Open. Tom's legacy is carved in granite at Pebble thanks to his 1982 17th hole chip-in that sealed his Open win over Jack Nicklaus. The other remarkable story is the tale of Erik Compton, a two time heart transplant recipient, who survived the grueling 36 qualifier just to get here. 

With all formalities out of the way and without further ado, let's find a winner.......


Tiger Woods, 8/1 - Short odds due to his resume, especially here at Pebble. Will have to hit it straight off the tees. Don't see it with the state of his game. Won't win.

Phil Mickelson, 8/1 - Odds make more sense here. 5 runner-ups at Pebble, 3 wins. Major mojo. Should win.

Lee Westwood, 12/1 - Coming in off a victory. Perhaps should be the favorite. Has all the tools with new found confidence. Could certainly win.

Padraig Harrington, 25/1 - Has pedigree and talent required. Constant fiddling with his game may hurt. Still, could win.

Rory McIlroy, 25/1 - Maturity beyond his 21 years. Knows how to win. Will be awesome tee to green. Putter will be the decider. Could win.

Dustin Johnson, 25/1 - US version of McIlroy. Defended Pebble Pro-Am here this year. Entirely different course for the Open, but Johnson has the all-around game. Putter will tell. Could win.

Ernie Els, 33/1 - The Big Enigma. Having a solid year for a change. If he's straight off the tees will have a short iron in his hands a lot. It's possible, but doubt it. Can play down to the occasion.

Jim Furyk, 33/1 - Laser-like irons will help with small greens. No need to strong arm this course. As goes the putter, goes Furyk. Possible.

Luke Donald, 33/1 - Great game for this course. See Furyk regarding iron play. Could win this thing.

Nick Watney, 40/1 - In the D. Johnson mold. Sort of a local boy. Will have tons of short irons. Could win, but doubtful.

Steve Stricker, 40/1 - Would have been a pick at the beginning of the season. Game isn't as sharp as usual. A major is no time to figure things out. Won't win.

Camilo Villegas, 50/1 - Not afraid to go low. Risk/reward choices make for some big numbers however. Female gallery fave. Won't win here though.

Retief Goosen, 50/1 - Should be in any major conversation. Short game and putting ideal for this tourney. Not exactly peaking, but should at least contend.

Geoff Ogilvy, 50/1 - Uncharacteristically blase season thus far.  Obviously knows how to win an Open. May surprise, but I don't think so.

Paul Casey, 50/1 - Long, fairly straight. Prone to putting lapses. At 50/1 I like him. Possible.

Adam Scott, 50/1 - Appears to be rounding back into Scott of old form. Rather large question mark left though. I don't see him contending.

Bo Van Pelt, 50/1 - Van who? Not Lucy from Peanuts brother. Lots of top tens this year put him here. Nice year so far. Should wilt under the major microscope.


Best of the Rest  

Hunter Mahan, KJ Choi, Tim Clark, Matt Kuchar, Zach Johnson, and Stewart Cink all go off at 66/1. Of the bunch I see value in Mahan and Kuchar. And.... never, ever underestimate Tim Clark in a major. All he does is get the ball in the hole. Ian Poulter at 80/1 seems a bit out of whack as does Ben Crane with the same odds. Graeme McDowell at  80/1 odds is a possible dark horse. Who would have predicted Sergio going off at 100/1? Young Ryo Ishikawa pays at 200/1 if you're so inclined. That's a commentary on the importance of shooting 58 on a 6,500 yard course in Japan I suppose. With this strong of a field there's tons of potential dark horses. The trick is identifying them. Let's take our best shot..........


Average Golfer's 2010 US Open Picks

1. Mickelson,  (Yeah, I know. easy to go with chalk)
2. Dustin Johnson 
3. Tim Clark,  (Could easily be considered a dark horse)

Dark Horse Picks

Ty Tryon at 1000/1  (Now that's what I call a dark horse)
Lucas Glover and Henrik Stenson  (The defender and great player at 125/1, worth a shot)


As always, bet early and often.







Til' next,

Tiger Woods Played 604 Holes in 2008 - Be There.

Follow The Roar
By: Bob Smiley

Average Golfer Book Review

I first became acquainted with Bob Smiley's work by reading an article he published on ESPN.com. Anything that makes me chuckle out loud, while reading alone, is worthy of investigation. That led me to Bob's website, forerightbob.com, and another window into this man's singular take on the golf world.
I've mentioned that he's the funniest golf guy in cyberspace, a claim I still stand by.

In his first attempt as a book author he took on the Herculean task of following Tiger Woods for all 604 holes of his now legendary 2008 season. The logistics involved in this quest are such that if you examined them in hindsight, you'd never attempt it. The beauty is Bob did it the way the common fellow, you or me, would have been forced to do. No private jets, no chauffeurs, an accidental press pass, and the wile and guile needed to just gain access to some events. Bob tells you exactly what it would have been like if you'd have tried the same itinerary. From Torrey Pines to Dubai and back again, Smiley truly gives you the sensations of witnessing every single solitary stroke that the icon Woods took in 2008. Most will be familiar with the headlines of Tiger's year, but witnessing the dissection of it just adds to the appreciation of his exploits.

The book has a secondary theme that I enjoyed immensely. Smiley is particularly adept at observing the people around him. His riotous and dead- on descriptions of the characters he encountered during his journey were a welcome surprise that kept me page turning to see how the relationships played out. This makes it sort of a book within a book. This read will grab you from the get go and you'll find it difficult to bookmark, instead plowing onward as to not break the mood.

In case you hadn't guessed, Average Golfer gives Follow The Roar an unqualified thumbs up. Take the time from your busy life to escape into the world of Woods via Smiley. You'll wished you'd done it sooner. Here's an exclusive excerpt from Follow The Roar as released by the publisher, HarperCollins. Buy It Now At..... Amazon.com, Barnes & Noble, Borders.

Woods Gambles His Future For Open Trophy. Worth It?

Do you think Tim Finchem is saying quietly to himself, "He played with what?". Yup, the franchise played 91 holes at full speed and walked 21 miles with a torn anterior cruciate ligament and a double stress fracture of the tibia. Is that considered brave? Nope, it means he has a high tolerance for pain. With that threshold, might as well finish the year. Why stop now? Have the surgery after the Fedex Cup.

There's no question Mr. Woods ignored the good advice of some of the top doctors in their field. I'll bet that his doctors are so good they have to treat themselves. There's none better. If Woods was an NFL quarterback the diagnosis would have shut him down for the year. Because the team would care for his well being? No, to protect the franchise. Because he has another 10 to 12 years or more to rack up major trophies. If Woods was a superstar in a team sport he'd have been shelved and operated on last summer when he tore the ACL. And no, they wouldn't have asked his opinion. Which begs the question, why didn't he have the ACL fixed right after last years Fedex Cup? He might have rehabbed and made the US Open. Golf's an individual sport and he owes us no answers. He can play or not play whenever he chooses. Still, the timing of all this fails to make sense.

It can't be about money. Even if Tiger pulled a Daly and started getting his mail at a Vegas casino, money wouldn't be an issue. No, its about ego. A large ego is somewhat necessary to achieve unknown heights in a solitary sport. Big ego convinces you that you can defy the laws of physics and biology by willing them away. Don't confuse self confidence with ego though. Too much ego is what allows us to make short term decisions that are in our interests alone. My guess is that Woods wanted to play in this year's Masters and that mind set carried over to the US Open in a ridiculous manner. Watching all of this unfold is like when I was a kid and watched Evel Knievel jump 20 school buses or some other death defying stunt. Were they great achievements? Well, yes, they were Herculean. Was it a dumb thing to do? Well, of course. Tiger just jumped 20 school buses. Fun to watch. Really dumb thing to do.

Can't you just see Tim Finchem at the operating room door saying, "Are you sure you went to the Duke University Medical School?"

Til' next,

2008 U.S.Open Postscript.

Do you remember the advice that says if you write a scathing letter, or one with a necessary negative tone, that you should avoid mailing it for twenty four hours, read it again, and see how you might rewrite it having slept on your first thoughts? That's the best way to assess what was just a remarkable U.S. Open. Drama everywhere from different sources, on and off the course. I was going to say it was compelling, but I've read the word compelling about four thousand times in the last five days from other scribes interpreting what happened at Torrey Pines. Many think I'm not capable of original thoughts, and perhaps they're right. I'll try regardless.

1. If Tiger Woods was truly going against the advice of his medical team and was seriously endangering the long term health of his knee, then he's a moron. Tiger Woods is no moron. Let's assume he has the best medical team possible. That's not much of a stretch. Phil Knight himself would change the bandages. I can't believe he'd trade one major title for a shot at many more major titles. The only plausible explanation, if his knee was that bad, is that the crack staff told him he had one, and just one, more tournament left in the knee. If that were the case, he'd suck it up and win his last chance for a major, and then retire. Last I checked he hasn't pulled an Annika. I think it hurt like hell, but the chances of creating more or permanent damage were small. Tiger's too smart to jeopardize what should be another 10-12 years on tour. I think the vague answers to the questions regarding the knee was just Tiger being Tiger. He doesn't want anyone to know exactly what condition he's in, especially the competition. He's also a bit of a drama queen. I take nothing from his victory. He was obviously in a great deal of pain and came through when it mattered. Like usual.

2. Rocco stepped up big time. I've nothing but respect and admiration for how he played and how he handled himself. The #158 ranked player on the planet came the closest to bagging a Tiger in a major. All I want to know is, where were the other 153 guys? Lee Westwood notwithstanding. Lee played great and just missed creating a three way playoff. I mean the BIG names. Els, +5, Goosen, +5, Garcia, +6, Mickelson, +6, Adam Scott, +7, Baddeley, +8, Stricker, +8, Furyk, +9, Harrington, +9, Rory, +12, Vijay, +14. Need I go on? Don't tell me the record course length eliminated a lot of the great players. Rocco's not exactly an animal off the tee. I'll tell you why these "great" players can't challenge Woods in most majors. They choke. Flat out choke. Dr. Pressure comes a callin'. They all have the shots that Woods has. Some are longer than him. Some are statistically better putters or have better up and down percentages. They just can't do it as often when the pressure's on. Particularly under the spotlight of a major championship. Nicklaus had Arnie, Watson, Trevino etc. to contend with. He beat them more than they beat him, but pressure wasn't going to be the determining factor with any of them. They won their share of majors. No one today seems capable of stepping up and going toe to toe with Woods. When that 12 footer is there to decide who goes home with a trophy, he makes his, they miss theirs. Period.

3. Television coverage. First, I wish the P.G.A. Tour would only allow one network to cover a tournament. I don't want the first 4 1/2 innings of a ball game to be handled by Fox and the last 4 1/2 covered by ESPN. It's silly. I had another word for it, but can't print it. Speaking of ESPN, they should be banned from covering golf forever. I won't even get into on air personalities, because it's too subjective. One person might love Johnny Miller, another detest him. I mean what I see on my freakin' screen! In the ESPN broadcast half of my screen was blocked by their incessant crawl and ignorant graphics. I've mentioned this before, but I just can't tell you how amateurish and annoying it was. I wrote their ombudsman a while back with this complaint after watching an L.P.G.A. event. I got the formula email in return stating how my complaint was being forwarded to the appropriate individuals. Sure it was. And monkeys fly out of my butt. Nuff' said.

4. I like the 18 hole playoff format. Not just because this one was exciting and close. I've always thought it made sense. After 72 holes it would be a shame to lose the tournament based on one bad shot or an unlucky bounce. Yes, I know this essentially came down to a sudden death playoff. Coincidence. Yes, I know the sportswriters and tournament officials and network television would prefer it get wrapped up on Sunday. For the record, Sunday's prime time 4th round of the U.S. Open beat the NBA finals in total viewership. Does that say more about the popularity of golf or the decline of the NBA?

5. All in all the 2008 U.S. Open was a wonderful spectacle. Great course, great play, and great memories. What else is there?


Til' next,

Tiger Nips Rocco in 19 Hole Marathon Playoff at '08 U.S. Open

91 holes, David vs Goliath, and a single stroke separated them after 91 holes. They were deadlocked after the 18 hole playoff, so it took a 19th playoff hole to decide what has to have been one of the most compelling major tournaments in quite some time. Tiger Woods parred the 7th hole, the 1st sudden death hole, to claim his 14th major championship and 3rd U.S. Open. A more than game Rocco Mediate forced him to use every last ounce of his formidable skill to pull it off. Woods was three strokes up through ten holes of the playoff when Mediate went on a three hole birdie tear of his own. He was one up getting to the 18th hole. Woods' birdie and Mediate's par forced sudden death. It was a little unfortunate that the sudden death playoff began on the 7th hole. It's a longish dogleg right par 4 that doesn't necessarily set up well for Rocco's natural draw. Sure enough, his tee ball was in a fairway bunker left. Woods hit the fairway and had an easy approach shot. Two putts later, after a little more Rocco trouble, Woods had a par and the trophy.

24,000+ fans showed up for the playoff. Woods' knee didn't appear to be much of a factor in today's round. He did mention in the post round interview though that he'd be taking some extended time off. Rocco gained a legion of fans for the quality of his play and his wonderful personality and attitude. Finally healthy after quite some time, he hung with and pressured the world's best over five days. Not many people can say that. I'm a Rocco fan now. How could you not be?

Til' next,

Still Open for Business - Woods/Mediate Playoff for '08 U.S. Open Title

At high noon tomorrow, Eastern Standard time, the unlikeliest of duos will play 18 holes of golf for the 2008 U.S. Open championship. Rocco Mediate, 156th in the world rankings will tee it up mano y mano against Tiger Woods, world #1. Rocco's 71 made up the two stroke deficit he started the day with. Wood's 73, with a need birdie on the 18th, left him alone tied with Mediate.

Rocco's steady play, hitting fairways and greens, elevated him to the high echelon of golf for the last four days. Wood's erratic play, especially off the tee, has been countered with spectacular short game and white hot putter when he needs it. With Rocco in the clubhouse with a one stroke lead, Woods and Lee Westwood were tied for 2nd, a single stroke back, both needing birdie on the easiest hole on the golf course. Both hit their drive into fairway bunkers. Both laid up, Woods in the 1st cut of rough, Westwood in the fairway. Both hit the green with their 3rd shots. Westwood missed a downhill slider to get into a playoff, Woods drained his to play tomorrow.

A study in contrast awaits. We all know Woods. We'll all think Rocco's part of the family when this is settled. Superstar vs 45 year old tour grinder. Long hitter vs short hitter. Mr. Serious vs Mr. Affable. The knee that's been talked about so much didn't seem to be as much of a factor other than the first two holes when Woods started double bogey, bogey. Rocco seems in fine shape having evidently licked the chronic back problems that have dogged him for a good share of his career.

Other than Westwood, no one really challenged Woods or Mediate all day long. Some got within three or four shots of the leaders and then hit a wall that prevented them from contending. Tomorrow's round begins at 12:00 PM EST on ESPN, then switches to NBC at 2:00 PM. This has been one of the best U.S. Opens ever. Great tough, but fair golf course. Compelling action and lead changes. Couldn't ask for anything more. May the best man win.

Til, next,

Average Golfer observation..........Rocco Mediate has a career playoff record of 2-0.

Unreal Woods Snatches 54 Hole Lead at '08 U.S. Open

A "see it to believe it" back nine gave Tiger Woods a one stroke lead over Lee Westwood at the 2008 U.S. Open. Woods stands at -3 with Westwood one back. Rocco Mediate was the only other player under par at -1. At +1 were D.J. Trahan and Geoff Ogilvy. Five players were tied at +2.

Woods was languishing on the front , but jump started his round with an eagle on 13. A 65 foot bomb brought his round back from the dead even without finding many fairways. On 17 he popped a chip shot from green side rough that one-hopped into the hole for birdie. The smirk on his face told everyone the shot was pure luck. Still, a bird's a bird. 18 was a surreal hole from the get go. With obvious pain from his recently repaired knee he found the fairway with a huge cut shot, ostensibly to be easier on the knee. His second on the par 54 was the same shot with a five wood. He found the green with it and of course drained a lengthy snake that broke about four feet. Four thousand people in the stands roared and set the stage for tomorrow's finale.

Woods and Westwood play last tomorrow. Anybody within five shots probably has a chance, especially with an injured Woods. He admitted in a post round interview that the pain was increasing every day he played with it. I'm sure he was headed straight to an ice machine.

Phil Mickelson shot himself in the foot on 13 when he carded a nine. He kind of tin cupped it from about 65 yards and that effectively ended his tournament. Rocco's a story. From tee to green he been better than anyone, even being a short hitter. Just goes to show that with a U.S. Open course set up, staying out of the deep stuff is paramount. Average Golfer would love to see Rocco do well. He's one of the nicest guys out there. Westwood was very steady and will be tough to beat. Ogilvy's won this before so nerves won't be a problem and he's got a great game. Can't wait for it to start.

Til' next,


Full Scoreboard here.

'08 U.S. Open, Day 1 - Hicks, Streelman Lead. Yes, Hicks, Streelman Lead.

Round 1 of the U.S. Open frequently leaves some relative unknowns in the lead. No different this year. Justin Hicks and Kevin Streelman each had 3 under 68s to share a one stroke lead over Stuart Appleby, Eric Axley, Rocco Mediate, and Geoff Ogilvy. Streelman made some noise earlier this year at the Buick Invitational when he was paired with Tiger Woods. The best info I could get on Hicks is that he finished 80th on the Nationwide Tour money list last year. Congrats to both leaders. It'll be fun to see how they handle the second round.

Dream pairing Woods, Mickelson, Scott was rather mundane. Mickelson was even par, which was pretty good after a 38 on the front. Woods was +1, 72 after a 38 on the back. Scott finished +2, 73. Woods grimaced after his tee shot on 18, leading us to believe the knee is a bother. That was an Average Golfer prediction and I can't imagine it's going to get any better over the next three days. The same three will play together tomorrow afternoon.

Rounds of note from big names include Ernie Els, -1. Could have been -3 or -4 other than some sloppy play in the end of his round. Lee Westwood, -1. Trying to disprove the "Brits stink here" theory. Luke Donald and Vijay, even par.

Notables that most likely played themselves out of the tournament on day1 include, defending champ Angel Cabrera, +8. He was eight over after his first eight holes. Justin Rose and Paul Casey, +8. Both proving the "Brits stink here" theory. Monty, +7. Oh dear! Henrik Stenson, Padraig Harrington, Ian Poulter, and previous champion Michael Campbell, all at +7.

If the weather stays dry this golf course will continue to get more difficult. I watched many seemingly perfect approach shots land on greens and bound to the back and tumble off. The greens are hard and fast. The back side of greens is not the place to be at this venue. All in all the course is in remarkable condition. Not many players were complaining. The most commonly heard comment was that it was "tough, but fair". there's a lot of tee box options and I'm anxious to see how the U.S.G.A. deals with them in the coming days.

I've mentioned it before, but now I'm convinced. ESPN should never be allowed to broadcast a golf tournament, any tournament, much less a U.S. Open. Their annoying on- screen graphics reduced the size of my visible screen by 40%. I'd rather watch a test pattern. Listening to Chris Berman as a lead golf announcer at a major is like listening to "Fred Flintstone Sings Pavarotti".

This time tomorrow will reveal the field when the real tournament starts on Saturday. It'll be fun to watch these guys scramble for position. Sometimes the high drama is on Friday.

Til' next,

2008 U.S. Open - Who Can Win?

Sounds like a dumb question. Perhaps it is. Regardless, they still play all 72 holes. Who would have picked Angel Cabrera last year? I didn't, and if you say you did, and you're not from Argentina, you're lying. Angel's mother didn't pick him. Let's search for an Angel this year or wimp out and take a favorite. As is the tradition in Average Golfer we'll post the Ladbrokes odds for the top twenty players and throw in a long shot or two. Here we go........

Tiger Woods, 3/1 ........ Probably would have been 8/5 without the knee injury. I think he's going to have trouble with full shots out of US Open rough due to that knee. He'll be in some rough. His driving accuracy is only 59%. OK on the regular tour, trouble here. He won't win.

Phil Mickelson, 8/1 ........ Hasn't won a major since the disaster at Winged Foot. Wants this badly. Has the length and strength for the course. Played high school matches at Torrey Pines. Can win. Probably the safest bet on the board.

Sergio Garcia, 20/1 ........ Has the game for the course. Long and straight. 294 yds. and 65% of fairways. Magical around the greens. Won The Players to build confidence in big events. Has a great chance to win this if his head stays glued on.

Padraig Harrington, 25/1 ........ Playing well, but not major championship well. Still, a good enough player to always be a threat. Handles pressure well, i.e. last year's Open Championship. Could win, but doubtful.

Geoff Ogilvy, 33/1 ........ Previous winner. Good driver. Hits a lot of greens. Could win. Seems to play up to the importance of the tournament.

Jim Furyk, 33/1 ........ Another previous winner. 72% fairways hit which really helps here. Sneaky long off the tee when needed. As his putter goes, so go his chances. I like him. Average Golfer's pick to win.

Luke Donald, 33/1 ........ Can't win here. The Brits don't hold up to pressure on American soil for some reason, unless it's the Ryder Cup. Course is too long and nasty for Luke.

Vijay Singh, 33/1 ........ Hard to figure Vijay this year. Good finishes, good stats, no wins. Made some swing changes, although it looks the same to me. Strong player, can win.

Adam Scott, 40/1 ........ Broken pinky made him tumble down the odds board. Tough to grip a club with a broken finger, to say nothing of a 100+ mph hack out of 4 inch rough. Not this year for Adam.

Ernie Els, 40/1 ........ What's to say? Ernie's a mess until he shows me otherwise. Can't win. I love Ernie and will point out that he's a two time winner. Seems like a million years ago.

Justin Rose, 40/1 ........ See Luke Donald. I was on the Rose bandwagon early in the year, jumped off and got hit by a bus. 72.00 scoring average won't get it done here.

Retief Goosen, 40/1 ........ Goose is an enigma wrapped in a conundrum. Obviously having won this tournament he's capable. Not the way he's played this year though. Can't win.

Stewart Cink, 40/ ........ Hung tough here earlier this year. Different scenario now. 6 top tens this year. Making lots of money. Can't hang with Phil and Tiger on a Sunday. Can't win.

Trevor Immelman, 40/1 ........ Last man with a shot at a grand slam. Lost to Leonard last week in a playoff. Gorgeous swing and a money putter. Can win.

Justin Leonard, 50/1 ........ Guess the bookmaker's weren't all that impressed with last week's win. Accurate driver, hits a ton of greens. Not probable, but certainly possible.

Mike Weir, 50/1 ........ Resurrected his game after a tough few years. Like Mike, but this is too much acreage for him. Can't win.

Stephen Ames, 50/1 ........ Another guy that rises in big situations. Other than match play with Woods. Solid game, good head. Could win.

Anthony Kim, 66/1, ...... At 66/1 this kid's worth throwing down a few bucks. Kills it off the tee. Great all around skills. Little experience in a pressure cooker like this. Who knows? Could win.

Boo Weekley, 66/1 ........ I'd have expected J.B. Holmes to have shorter odds than Boo. Guess that's why I'm not a professional gambler. "Aw Shucks" attitude may be just right for this event. Has the tools. Could win.

Henrik Stenson, 66/1 ........ Regarded much higher earlier in the season. Underachieved so far. Great player, not his year. Slimmest of chances out of respect for his talent.


Here's 3 Sleeper Picks for the more adventurous of you..........

Angel Cabrera, 80/1 ........ Defending champ 80/1? He's long and strong.

Martin Kaymer, 125/1 ........ Euro sensation just coming into his own.

Pat Perez, 150/1 ........ SoCal native. Has played this course over 250 times. Volatile temper's held him back since day #1. Maybe it's screwed on straight for four days.


If I missed anyone let me know. Tough to cover all 156.

Til' next,

2008 U.S. Open Preview - What You NEED To Know.

Year in and year out, the most difficult test in golf is upon us. Torrey Pines in La Jolla, CA is the host for the 2008 U.S. Open. Make no mistake though, this isn't even close to being the golf course that hosted the Buick Invitational in January. Longer, harder, faster are the keywords. Today we'll highlight the course, tomorrow the combatants.

The Course

7,643 yards, yes, Seven Thousand, Six Hundred, Forty Three yards. Longer than a Fellini flick. You would expect this favors the huge hitters. Perhaps, perhaps not. One thing for sure though, the weak hitters have no chance here. Mike Davis, the U.S.G.A.'s senior director of rules and competitions is responsible for the course set up. It's probably his influence that "softened" the set up for U.S. Open courses lately. Graduated rough will be used again with the 1st cut set at 1 3/4 inches. That's not too tough of a penalty for missing a fairway by a bit. It allows the player to make a solid strike on the ball, but diminishes his ability to produce green holding spin. 1st primary cut, or the "Crap, not there", cut is set at 2 1/2 inches. That's enough rough to make for some serious farming or balloon balls. The "real" rough, or the primary cut will be set at 3 1/2 inches. That's the kind of grass that says, "Get it back in play", no more, no less. Don't be surprised either if the 3 1/2 inches is measured today and by Thursday it's "find it with your foot" long.

All a player has to do to take the rough out of the equation is hit fairways. The 24-33 yard wide fairways. Oh, and be long as well. This baby is 7,643 yards long. Landing in the fairway doesn't mean you hit the fairway. Much drier conditions in June means a hard and fast golf course. Run outs in the rough are just as nasty as airing it there. If they survive all that, the greens are no picnic. Undulating and sloped and dry. It's been reported that they're running in the low 13s on the Stimpmeter for the practice sessions. I would expect that sometime, particularly this weekend, that number will start with a 14. Dry and sunny conditions are in order through the rest of the week. One condition that might favor early round players is that it's fog season in San Diego. Morning fog is a regular occurrence and dampens the course until it's burned off by the sun. Hey, any edge you can get in a U.S. Open.

Holes to Watch

Well, all of them of course, but of note......

#6 Converted par 5. Can play 515 yds. Has the green design to accept 3rd shots, ahving been a par 5. You may see 2nd shot lay ups and up and downs for par.

#9 612 yd. par 5. Only the longest guys, under the right conditions, can reach this monster in two.

#12 505 yd. par four. Tough as a $5.00 steak. ha options though. Their approach shots can be run up. Expect many different strategies here.

#16 225 yd. par 3. Tee boxes can be on either side of this hole giving it distinctive looks. The wind is a large factor on this one.

#18 Great finisher at the discretion of the U.S.G.A. they have the ability to move the tee box up and make it a reachable par five for most of the field. Eagle chances on 18 on Sunday in a U.S. Open? That's must see TV.

So, we've learned that the golfer that wins this has to be long off the tee, but accurate. He has to be strong enough to muscle the ball out of the rough when he misses a fairway. He has to generate spin to hold slick, undulating greens. But most of all, like almost every other golf tournament, he has to have hot putter for four days. Sound like anyone you know? If so, then let me know, because right now I'm clueless on this one.

Tomorrow we'll try to separate the wheat from the chaff and see if we can figure out who has the best chance of winning this dang thing.

Til' next,

2008 U.S. Open - No Clear Favorite.

Hogwash you say? Who's the favorite then? Tiger? Home course advantage I'll give you. Two month layoff won't help. Sure, he's Tiger Woods. Still, two weeks before a major he's still not playing 18 holes on his backyard course that looks nothing like Torrey Pines in mid-summer. Four days of walking in microwave heat, combined with some understandable ring rust, I don't see him as a favorite. Contender and possible winner? Of course. Just like everyone else. Well, almost everyone. His last U.S. Open win was six years ago at Bethpage. The Open isn't his favorite major I'd say.

Phil? #2 in the world Phil? He's never won the U.S. Open. He had won at Winged Foot in '06, but gave it back like a fisherman losing his grip on a trophy bass. You'd have to say that Geoff Ogilvy is as much a favorite as Phil, considering he can legally hold an Open trophy. Same as Angel Cabrera. Why wouldn't he be the favorite? He's the last guy to do it. Or Retief Goosen. He's the latest guy to win two Opens, '01, '04. Wouldn't that make him the favorite? Oops, where's Retief been this year? Ernie Els? Multiple Open winner. I guess the fact that Ernie's game's in disarray doesn't make him the favorite. Did I mention he's won two Opens?

Are you a current stats person? Go with who's hot? That would be Kenny Perry. Hot as a pistol. Just coming off a victory on a tough course in Jack's Memorial. Crap, he's not in the Open. He didn't want to go through 36 hole qualifying, so he'll be mowing the lawn and watching the Open like you and me. Sergio's pretty hot. Is he the Open favorite? Well, could be, but never won a major. Until he does I don't see him as a favorite in any of them. Tell him it's the Ryder Cup and he's my prohibitive favorite. Vijay? Contender, not the clear cut favorite. Stewart Cink has more top ten finishes than anyone, (6), in '08. Open Favorite? Nope. Corey Pavin leads in scrambling. Why? Because he has to. Heath Slocumb leads in proximity to the hole, (31' 3"), not the Open favorite. Driving distance is Bubba Watson, no surprise, (312.3 yds.). Unfortunately Bubba's not the Open favorite. Olin Browne leads in driving accuracy, (78.71). I'm not even sure if he's in the Open. (Sorry Mrs. Browne) If so, I wish him all the luck in the world, but he's not the favorite.

Stumped? That should make for a great tournament. However, Average Golfer indeed does have a favorite. If she'd agree to a fake mustache for a few days I'd pick Lorena Ochoa. Go ahead, bet against me. Thought so.

Til, next,