Tiger Woods Dialed In For Another Green Jacket?

Before two of his previous Masters victories Tiger Woods won the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill. Today he set himself up to do it again with a five stroke win over Graeme McDowell that broke his 924 day winless drought. Tiger might count his Chevron triumph, but having fewer golfers than holes, we don't. That makes him the odds on favorite to capture his fifth green jacket.

What are his chances? Well, since you asked....

1. He loves the golf course.

2. He knows it like the back of his hand, which is crucial when it comes to the nuances of the greens and knowing where to leave to the ball, even more importantly, where not to.

3. He hits a stupendous high cut shot, necessary at Augusta to have approach shots stop on greens rolling at about 14 on the old Stimp.

4. He knows the putts. Knowing is one thing, making them is another. However, experience is key at Augusta and many players just haven't played enough rounds. There's a reason Fuzzy Zoeller's the only rookie winner in modern history.

5. His tee ball appears to have returned. Woods was 2nd in driving this week and leading the Tour for the year. Crucial at Augusta because where your approach is struck from is really the key to the course.

I consider Masters' weekend to be the start to the golf season, pro as well a mine. I think it's great spectacle with a weak field. Regardless, it's a great tip off to what I hope shapes up to be a fun season, whether I'm on the course or parked in front of the TV.

Swing real hard, they make tons of em'.

Martin Laird Attempts To Give Away Arnold Palmer Invitational, Finds No Takers.

Martin Laird, last man standing at Arnie's place.

Scotsman Martin Laird began the day with a two stroke advantage in the 2011 Arnold Palmer Invitational. He dropped five shots over the first eleven holes, but re-awoke at just the right time to hold off perennial bridesmaid Steve Marino and finish at eight under. Birdies at 12, 15, and 16 turned around Laird's fortunes as did a clutch 86 foot two-putt on the 18th hole. Marino began the day four behind Laird, but had taken the lead after 11 due to Laird's inefficiencies. A bogey on 15 and a disastrous double on 17 however cost him his 1st PGA Tour win. Marino's rare birdie on 18 had made things interesting until Laird's par on the same hole made it moot. Justin Rose's superb 68, under the conditions, made him wait as leader in the clubhouse until Marino finished. He shared a T3 at -6 with Marc Leishman and 44 year old David Toms. Nice showing by Toms, who has been injury stricken in the last couple of years. Full Field Final Scores

Mr. Palmer always said he'd love to host a US Open at his beloved Bay Hill. Well, he may never get his Open, but today he had US Open conditions. Dry fairways, wind, and rock-hard, fast greens made many shots a virtual coin flip regarding their results. Case in point the par three 17th. 19 of 73 players hit the green in regulation. That's a 24 handicapper rate of 26%. Balls couldn't land softly enough to hold the pool table surface and bumbled into the back bunker. Combine these conditions with some masochistic pin placements on the back nine and the result was professional golfers struggling to make par. One victim was my pick to win, Rickie Fowler. He began the round three back, shot 78, and finished T30.

Two weeks until Augusta, the world's best major with the weakest field.     






Swing hard, look up,

Pack Tightens at Arnold Palmer Invitational

Martin Laird, Round 2 leader, belly putter user.

Scotsman Martin Laird, on the strength of a 2nd round 65, assumed the lead at the halfway mark of the 2011 Arnold Palmer Invitational. I have no bone to pick with Mr. Laird, other than the fact he uses the ridiculous long putter that should be banned along with Nitro balls. Round one leader Spencer Levin hung tough with a -2, 70, to lay one back. Tied with Levin was KJ Choi after a spectacular 64. No beef from this Average Golfer with Choi even though his putter grip is thicker than mud.    

With the wind abating, the 2nd round was noticeably more benign, resulting in more scores in the 60s and a closing in of the field. There's four way tie for third at -6 between Steve Marino, Vaughn Taylor, Hunter Mahan, and highlighted by Chucky-Three-Sticks superb 65. Tiger Woods and Sergio Garcia both carded 73, 68s in the 1st two rounds to set up a third round pairing that should hold all the charm of dental appointment. Not Facebook buddies I'm guessin'. 

The first round wind and toughness of the course produced a cut line of +4. Notables failing to meet the minimum included Appleby, Manassero, O'Hair, Villegas, Vijay Singh, Dustin Johnson, and last week's winner Gary Woodland. 2nd Round Full Field Scores

Should be an interesting weekend with an intriguing cast of characters. The difficulty of the layout and potential for wind makes this one a must watch.








Swing hard, look up,

2011 Arnold Palmer Invitational - Odds and Expert Picks

 

Arnie's place. Well, his winter place before Latrobe warms up. At any rate, the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill Club & Lodge is always a first rate field with a first rate host. Most of the world's top ranked players show up to use it as a Masters prep and out of due respect for Mr. Palmer. Graeme McDowell, Tiger Woods, and Phil Mickelson, four through six in the world rankings are here, as is Gary Woodland, the bomber who won last week. Would have been nice if Mr. Kaymer, Westwood, or Donald had entered, if for nothing more than respect for Arnie. Can't play them all, but I'd think you'd make an exception for this one.

Let's consult with Ladbrokes and get a handle on the rest of the field, then make some particularly astute prognostications regarding who will win this thing. Ready......



Tiger Woods, 8/1 - Bettors still love him. Must figure he'll win eventually. 6 wins here, but hasn't played here since the greens were redone. Gotta be long and straight. Missing the straight until he proves otherwise. Won't win.

Dustin Johnson, 14/1 - Final round 78 cost him the trophy here last year. If anything, Johnson is devoid of memory. Should win.

Phil Mickelson, 14/1 - Won here in '97.  Hell, I didn't even play golf in '97. Masters prep for Phil. Too much rough, waiting for Augusta. Won't win.

Graeme McDowell, 16/1 - Capable of going ridiculously low. Four tool player. Could win. 

Hunter Mahan, 20/1 - Good pick at these odds. Sometimes drops a round in big events. Possible, but I doubt it.

Rickie Fowler, 33/1 - Great pick at these odds. Hey, the kid's going to win sometime, why not this time?

Justin Rose, 33/1 - Thought he had it lst week. Weak final round barbecued him. Possible this week. Like him at least in tip 5.

Vijay Singh, 33/1 - Like him a lot in this position. Won it in '07. The big guy is rallying. Could win.

Jim Furyk, 33/1 - What about Jim? Not the closer he once was. Maybe the lack of distance is finally catching up. Could win, doubt it.

Ernie Els, 33/1 - Could win it in his sleep. Hard to tell when he's not sleeping. I think his chances here are much better than the odds.

Zach Johnson, 40/1 - Sorry, as much as I like Z, he's in the same boat as Furyk. Won't win.

Brandt Snedeker, 40/1 - Showing signs of return to form. Needs more than signs though. Won't win.  

Bubba Watson, 40/1 - 5th on the money list. 6th in FedUp Cup. Odds out of whack. Take a flyer on Bubba and get paid. Could win.  

Sergio Garcia, 40/1 - Surprised me last week. Game was solid. Out of the limelight for a while may help. I see him as a "Who knows?"

Martin Laird, 40/1 - Another sleeper. Take him with these odds and ride the Scotsman to the bank. Could win.


Charl Schwartzel, 40/1 - Hmm... Always impressive, but my best memory of him is finishing 2nd to pal Ernie last year at Doral. Don't believe he can do it.

Chris Couch, 40/1 - Heir apparent to Calc. Odds distorted on his finish last week. Stay away.


Now Average Golfer is here to provide value and a reasonable return on your investment. Any dope can bet chalk and win his gas money for the next week. Here's the picks to generate some serious coin. Remember, the size of a tournament field makes it one of the most difficult sports bets you can make, so bet early and often.

Average Golfer Arnold Palmer Invitational Picks

1. Rickie Fowler
2. Dustin Johnson
3. Justin Rose


Dark Horse - Allenby
Darker Horse - JB Holmes
Even Darker Horse - Ryan Moore        












Swing hard, look up,

Tiger Woods Snatches Trophy From Sean O'Hair at Bay Hill.

Three over on Sunday doesn't get it done on the PGA Tour. Especially with Tiger Woods hot on your rear bumper. Woods played great, making the crucial putt when he needed it. His 15 footer for birdie on the 18th crowned it and gave him his 6th Arnold Palmer Invitational title. Let's face it though, Sean O'Hair crumpled under the weight of the setting. Starting the day 5 shots up he gave three of them back on the front nine, bogeying 3, and 7. Conversely Woods birdied 2, 3, and 7. The 16th became a pivotal hole as O'Hair shorted his approach and drowned his ball. That gave Woods a one stroke lead that he quickly gave back after a buried bunker bogey on 17. That set the stage for his winning birdie putt on 18 that was eerily reminiscent on his victory here last year.

Don't misunderstand me, Sean O'Hair is a fine young player and only 26 years old. He has a lot of great golf in front of him and shouldn't have to worry about getting his bills paid. Still, a 5 shot lead on Sunday is not something you absolutely can't give up, even against Woods. And....in the pantheon of players Woods has beaten on Sunday, O'Hair is just at the end of a long line.

This should answer any question about Woods and ring rust. Woods claims that after Doral he revisited the putting theories passed to him by his father and reincorporated his putting drills into his practice regimen. He finsished the week #1 in putting, and that my friends is what nearly always wins golf tournaments. Final full field scores.



Til' next,

Woods Spots O'Hair 2.5 Strokes Per Side at Bay Hill Finale

Just like your regular Sunday foursome Sean O'Hair has a 2.5 stroke advantage per side as he tries to capture the 2009 Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill. As most of the field fell backwards on Saturday due to heavy winds, Woods snuck himself into the final group with O'Hair by matching him in the 3rd round with a 71. That left O'Hair the same 5 shot cushion he began the day with. Six behind O'Hair at -1 were Ryuji Imada, Jason Gore and Zach Johnson. Johnson was one of the few players to advance on par Saturday firing an admirable 68 in windy conditions. The next group at even par included Robert Allenby, Pat Perez, and Brandt Snedeker.

BRACE FOR MONDAY FINISH

The greater Orlando area is currently experiencing heavy thunderstorms. That's pushed final round tee times back almost two hours. The delay means it's doubtful the final round will be completed before dark. Looks like the boys may be grabbing some OT for their efforts. The afternoon's forecast, after the rains clear, calls for partly cloudy skies, 76 degrees, and 20 mph winds. Expect softer conditions with players firing darts at the Sunday pin placements.



Til' next,